Saturday 1.29.11 Look Ahead

Projected Lines

Lou @ UConn -7, O/U 143 ...tough spot for Louisville, haven't been solid on the road but not trying to lay a bunch of points with UConn in what should be a close game. uconn slightly overvalued due to late game execution, but LOU no big road wins and fouls too much. better options out there, but lean Louisville if too many points.

Gtown @ Villanova -8, O/U 146 ...is gtown back? too early to tell, won't have the guard advantage they usually enjoy in this one. think we see a very high scoring game and lean over.

Fla St @ Clemson PK, O/U 126 ...clemson playing very well and tough out at home, so would be tasty home dog.

Xavier @ Richmond -5, O/U 136 ...great spot for the Spiders. xavier hot a10 start mostly due to schedule (although offense has improved dramatically), and while dominant inside their perimiter will be exposed here. looking to lay wood with Richmond, both teams playing great offense so may look over as well.

Minnesota @ Purdue -7, O/U 137 ...good spot for purdue to bounceback, coming of embarrassing loss and payback. big 10 games have been flying OVER so look over as well.

Florida @ Miss St +10, O/U 138 ...lines might be catching up with poor bulldogs, but tough to make a case to back them against road warrior gators. florida not afraid to slow pace down so look under if total close to 140.

Colorado @ Baylor -2, O/U 145 ...looking over here as both offenses can score and pace shouldn't be too possessive. baylor cannot be trusted right now, neither can colorado on the road.

Texas A&M @ Nebraska Pk, O/U 125 ...nebraska great at home and height should give aggie offense problems. also a look ahead spot. would love nebraska as a home dog.

NC St @ UNC -10, O/U 146 ...wheels could be coming off for nc st just as unc may be getting it together. should be a route.

Butler @ Valpo -6, O/U 135 ...butler defense complete train wreck, payback spot for valpo. love em here.

Syracuse @ Marquette -2, O/U 144 ...cuse height may cause serious problem for undersized marquette, but golden eagle offense has been solid and has perimiter shooters to beat zone. tough game, must win for both, look over.

UCLA @ Arizona St +2, O/U 133 ...doesn't get any easier for sun devils, tough loss to USC. must win for ucla and sun devils playing so bad you have to like bruins.

Georgia @ Kentucky -9, O/U 138 ...uga just can't put it all together, may hang tough but will eventually fall in payback spot.

Wisconsin @ Penn St Pk, O/U 122 ...penn st goes slow tempo and could win this, look under and nittany lions.

Ohio St @ Northwestern +8, O/U 142 ...big 10 games flying over the total and i smell an upset. been fading ohio st unsuccessfully lately, but they will eventually fall. northwesterns only chance is insane offense, so over/nw parlay is the lean.

Oregon @ Cal -9, O/U 144 ...cal is GOOD hope spread isn't too high

Colorado St @ Utah +2, O/U 150 ...colorado st not good as a favorite, hopefully get back on track here. but Utah has confidence back and could be dangerous. lean over.

Memphis @ Marshall +3, O/U 148 ...should be fast paced, marshall can get up for big game so if memphis laying too many don't be afraid of home dog, memphis clearly has gotten it together after rough start though.

Kansas St @ Kansas -11, O/U 145 ...WOODSHED ALERT! should be complete implosion by Wildcats.

USC @ Arizona -7, O/U 133 ...arizona gonna struggle to score here, look for road tested usc to keep it close and under.

UTEP @ Tulsa -1 ...utep outperforming everyone in CUSA right now but tough spot, still like them if they catching too many

West Virginia @ Cinci -4, O/U 128 ...looking under and bearcats

Pitt @ Rutgers +12 ...not afraid to back rutgers here as public will pound pitt. team has been playing much better than expectations thusfar in big east slate.

Missouri @ Texas -8, O/U 144 ...missouri just can't hang here, texas has good guards who can break press and will own the paint.

Saturday 1.22.11 Look Ahead

When does home court become overvalued? The essential question at this point. Home teams still seem to be the play, and I think my estimates may overvalue home court, but be wary if home team favorites go off higher than my estimates.

Line Estimates and Comments
11am
JMU -2 vs GMU …dukes overrated on light schedule

Noon
-Illinois -3, 138 vs Ohio ST…should be high scoring with slight edge to Ill at home
-Cuse -7 vs Nova…cuse tough at home and nova will have trouble with zone
-Richmond -3 @ Umass…spiders lost some swag but still like em and should be favored, tough spot tho umass been playing well
-UVA -2, 130 vs Ga Tech…should be low scoring, uva might not be favored as ga tech is starting to come on. But hoos have had brutal schedule thusfar and think offense underrated.

2pm
-Ucla -6 vs Stanford…bruins should win but haven’t had much success as chalk this year
-Uconn -7 vs Tenn…huskies still underrated?!
-Texas a&m -7 vs Kansas St …Kansas st still overrated?!
-Vandy -4 vs St Marys…vandy good at defending 3 but st marys is on fire right now
-Cleveland St -8 vs Wright St…can’t get me off the Vikings
-Duquense -16 vs Charlotte…have they caught on to the dukes?! Probably too many charlotte improving
-Maryland -7 vs Clemson…hoping for Terps fans that Clemson offense isn’t this good

3pm
-Xavier -3 vs Temple …muskateers coming alive in a10 slate but this is a step up

4pm
-UGA -10 vs Miss St…miss st showing signs of life but still ugly, beware UGA as chalk though
-ODU -6 vs VCU…rams just can’t handle monarchs on the boards right now
-St Johns -2 vs Cinci…bearcats still underrated and johnnies coming back to earth
-Kansas -5 vs Texas…look out for the longhorn upset. Seriously if Kansas wins they’ll be undefeated by big 12 tourney.
-Tease Pitt, Duke, and Washington. Just because.
-Baylor -8 vs Okie St…good bounce back spot, assuming coach drew is as good as advertised, otherwise this team is dead

5pm
-Mo st -10 vs Creighton…creighton hasn’t been able to step up so far this year

6pm
-Oregon st -5 vs Oregon …ducks just terrible this year
-Kentucky -6 @ South Cack…road woes have to end somewhere right?

7pm
-UAB -1 vs Memphis…like what I’m seeing out of Memphis right now might be a good time to buy low
-Florida St -6, 135 vs BC…gonne ride this BC train and look over
-Notre Dame -3 vs Marquette…payback spot but marquette quietly balling
-Minnesota -1 @ Michigan…Michigan tough out at home could be worth a shot
-Nebraska -10 @Texas Tech …let me know when knight is fired, fade til then

LATER (9pm and on)
-Gonzaga -4 @ San Fran …hear me out, keep riding the Dons. Zags could fall apart this WCC season, might finish 4th in conference
-Idaho -3 vs Boise St…vandals covering machines but will have problems with TOs here
-BYU -7 @ Colorado St…lost a lot of value with the UNLV upset, but Colorado St is TOUGH as nails right now
-UNCW -8 vs Towson …should light up towson
-Purdue -6 vs Mich St…just not getting easier for the Spartans, might finish .500 in conference
-Missouri -7 vs Iowa St …cyclones very underrated, and don’t turn it over
-Washington St -2 vs Arizona …love zona but still too young and can’t handle a zone
-Northern Colorado -9 vs Weber St…great ATS at home, should light up weber st
-USC -8 vs California …you really don’t want to lay points against the Bears right now
-Nevada -10 vs La Tech…good time to get on the bandwagon

Probable Plays in Big Games
1) Illinois/Ohio St Over. Both teams are chugging along on offense and while Illinois is improving and Ohio St untested, don't trust Illinois at what will probably be an inflated line based on win and cover over an overvalued Mich St. Ohio St ML could be worth a shot.
2) Syracuse ATS. Think Nova will really struggle in this one, getting manhandled in the paint.
3) UConn ATS. Huskies continue to win and cover. Don't see struggling Tennekey knocking off another Big East squad on the road, even with Pearl.
4) Texas A&M ATS. Kansas St wildly overrated still, A&M underrated.
5) St Marys ATS. Tough to back a road team at Memorial but Vandy not strong enough in the paint to expose Gaels weakness. St Marys very underrated.
6) Texas ATS. Love the Jayhawks but struggled at home as chalk and Longhorns very dangerous...should take Morris brothers out of game, will be up to Jayhawk guards.
7) BC ATS and Over. Don't think you can stop BCs offense right now. Florida St has great defense but will push if behind.
8) Purdue ATS. Michigan St is really struggling and Purdue is very strong, maybe strongest in Big 10.
9) Washington St ATS. Arizona just can't get it done on road against zone.
10) Colorado St ATS. Team is rolling right now.

Buy Low Candidates or Underrated
Memphis
Nevada
Boise St
San Francisco
Iowa St
California
Colorado St

Sell High Candidates or Overrated
Michigan St
Gonzaga
JMU
Kansas St
Tennessee
Minnesota

KEEP GAMING!