College Buckets 12.18.10

BACK AGAIN! $tack$ ...good day for teams that have sh*t SOS to get exposed as the public is loving the likes of UCF, Stanford, Okie St, Cleveland St (love the Vikings tho) and Miss St (hate va tech).

usc/kansas u138
miami -2
butler -8.5
west va -9.5
florida/kan st o135
texas +3
gonzaga +7.5
richmond/ga tech o133
ucla +5
alabama +5.5
va tech -6
wichita st -5

KEEP. GAMING.

College Buckets 12/3/10

UGA -5
WSU/KSU o145
WSU +3 *LARGE*

YTD: 21-12-1 (5-0 LARGE)

College Buckets 12/2/10

Arizona St +10
Oregon/Miss o155
Loyla MD -5.5

YTD: 20-10-1 (5-0 LARGE)

College Buckets 12/1/10

How bad is the ACC? Could get real ugly tonight, especially if Duke lays an egg.

Richmond +4.5
Cinci/Wright St u121
UCF +3
USF +2.5
BC/Indiana o130
Wisconsin -9.5
Purdue +1
Purdue/Va Tech u130
Loyola Chicago +3
Penn St E
Duke -10

YTD: 13-6-1 (5-0 LARGE)

College Buckets 11/30/10

back on the grind...

Florida St +4
Georgetown E *LARGE*
Northwestern -6
Miami/Ole Miss o146
Iowa/Wake u149

YTD: 10-5 (4-0 LARGE)

College Buckets 11/17/10

Colorado and Va Tech good examples of how road teams just melt down the stretch...still dipping my feet in a few more here though

Delaware +5
Loyola Marymount +5
Utah St +7
Iowa St -7.5
Missouri St +6
Murray St/Ole Miss u140

YTD: 5-4 (4-0 LARGE)

College Buckets 11/16/10

MERRY NEW YEAR!

Va Tech +6.5
Ohio St ML +130 *LARGE*
VCU -2 *LARGE*
Colorado +6
Missouri St -8 *LARGE*
Texas Tech -1.5
Louisville -2 *LARGE*
Sd St +5.5
Ariz St +3

witholding on totals til we get some more data. otherwise, like the Colorado/UGA over, Missouri State/Arkansas St under, and Texas Tech/North Texas over.

College Football 2010 Futures

Taking into account the Vegas odds, obviously these are not usually the favorites.

ACC: Florida St
Big 12: Missouri
Pac 10: Oregon
Big 10: Wisconsin
Big East: USF
MWC: TCU
CUSA: SMU
WAC: Nevada
MAC: Kent St
Sun Belt: MTSU

...am i missing a conference? Oh yeah, SEC: South Carolina

National Champs: TCU
Heisman: Christian Ponder

Day 6

Dogs not coming through. Cornell just couldn't keep up, Washington just looked like it ran out of steam midway in the first half, and took a tough break (got it at 5 so a push) on the X-men who definitely showed up. Props to the A-10, I expect a Dayton-Rhode Island final in the NIT. The change of venue really appears to rattle teams, they have started slow and shots aren't falling early, this led to unders in the Butler, Cornell, and West Va game. So I'm looking for some unders tonight. Also, 3 big 10 teams tonight...and i'm going against all of them even though I think its the most underrated conference in the country. In other news, I nailed the Butler game...but am not hopeful for them to upset Kansas St. On to tonight...

* Tenn +4.5
*** Under 134
Because I'm picking every game here on out, I'll take the Volunteers with the points. They have been great as a dog (although the 2 big wins were both at home...and they were a dog against UK in the SEC tourney) and Ohio St is frighteningly thin and may wear down if the Volunteers really push the press. But mostly, I won't be betting on Ohio St the entire tournament as I have a vested interest in their success, and they are a big public pick (like Baylor) tonight. I do like the Under though. Tennessee is very good defensively so unless Diebler and Buford rain 3s its going to be the Evan Turner show if Ohio St is going to break 70. They won't push very fast, I believe if they break the press they'll settle into a half court set. Its very possible Turner-over could meltdown though due to the press which would push this over, Tennesee will take all turnovers for easy buckets (as in Ohio game). But Ohio St doesn't settle for 3s like Ohio, they settle for Evan Turner creating offense off his dribble...and he is likely to lose composure in any adversity. EVAN, BE A STOIC MY FRIEND! IT IS THE ONLY WAY TO LEAD!

*** St Mary's +5
*** Over 142
Enough Samhan. TALK ABOUT MICKEY McCONNELL. You know what, don't. I am tired of hearing excuses for why they can't keep up with Baylor. The only one I'm buying is nobody on St Marys can guard Lacedarius (my man crush on Mickey is making me biased here...he may not be able to handle Tweeny either)....but man, if they can keep up with the Nova guards?!?! I think the Gaels can hang around in this one. Yes, Baylor is the tallest team in the nation, but no, that doesn't change the fact that St Mary's is the 11th tallest and has 2 huge Australians to go along with Samhan. Baylor has been great ATS but this is finally a steep price. This game seems VERY similar to last night's Xavier/Kansas St matchup...2 efficient offenses going blow for blow...and man, these defenses are even worse. So yes, this is one case I like the Over, but no, i'm not taking the Gaels ML.

*** No Iowa ML
*** Under 122
I'm this crazy. Going LARGE (again) against Izzo in the tournament. Don't care (also taking the Under for the same amount to save face). I stand by my theory that something is not right with Michigan St this season. Maryland is no stranger to letting teams annihilate them on the boards and giving up a plethora of wide open 3s. But to believe that is going to happen against Northern Iowa tonight is insanity. Lucas isn't a big loss in the ballhandling PG sense, but he is in perimiter shooting. Even though he hit a game winner, Lucious is not a strong shooter, but could limit Michigan St's TOs (which they have had problems with). This should be a good old fashioned Big 10 barn burner. No Iowa is like the 10th slowest team in Division 1, and Mich St isn't going to get out and run. The only time to get Izzo is on the opening game of the weekend, and if they win this they are a serious Final 4 and National Championship contender...again. WOW.

*** Duke -8.5
The Gophers beat the PISS out of Purdue. Michigan St beat the PISS out of Purdue (on the road). Duke is the biggest team they will play since those two teams (HA!). I fear the Boilermakers continued desire and motivation to show how good they are this year even without Hummell (and I love the Big 10), but things like that allow you to gut a win out against an average Texas A&M team. Duke is for real right now, and I think playing the best ball of all the chip favorites. Purdue can get torched from 3 and Duke has the size to dominate the paint and the boards, especially with Hummell out. This just seems like a total mismatch to me. Duke slowed the pace to shake off Cal, but I think they will look for chances to push against a Purdue team they know is weak on offense. Coach K is kinda outclassing cats right now, and I think that will continue here against Matt Painter who hasn't really done much on the big stage yet. Initially leaned to the under given Purdue's likely offensive woes, but just seems too low for a game that could see Duke get to 70...I really think they are going to blow it up from deep. Also, last game was 58 possessions (the slowest Duke game of the year) and they still hit 121. If this one is just as slow it should go under, but Duke could get to 70...

Day 5

Cold streak continues...9-19 in round 2 to put me at an average 26-25 through the first weekend (4-6 on big plays...expect more of these this weekend since I will be emotional regarding the end of the season). Combine all the ML losses and I'm probably hitting better than 50%, but I am playing those so be it. Not quitting on the dogs yet. Syracuse and Kentucky may well be the hot teams given their first weekend, but these teams both are still very overrated compared to the top teams of previous tournaments, and there isn't a team in this tournament that I can guaranty is getting to the Final 4 right now (and if I had to pick one I'd go Duke, but Baylor/St Mary's will be a hell of a game on Sunday). Sweet 16 and Elite 8 trends favor the favorites (and I see these covers clowns saying "all chalk" "easiest games ever"), but again, my entire theory here is that none of these teams are "elite" and I think we'll see a lot of dogs having the chance to win late in these games.

***** Butler +6
* Butler ML +225
Biggest play yet of the tournament. Yes, Butler is outmatched athletically and if Murray State gave them problems, Syracuse is going to give them night terrors. These are the obvious factors that cause almost 90% of the public to be on Syracuse and people punching their Championship game ticket. Just as Kansas, the Cuse has a history of flaming out when they are the clear favorite. So all we need is a viable theory for Butler to have a chance in this game (besides Gus Johnson being the announcer...yes expect chaos in Utah tonight), and we can side with Vegas on the Bulldogs. I watched Butler destory a Wright St zone for about 10 minutes 3 weeks ago. It was amazing. Wright St doesn't have the size Syracuse does, but they had the quickness, and they could not keep up with the Butler ball movement. The 2-3 will obliterate a team like Gonzaga that is not even in the top 200 in A/FGM...Butler doesn't fit that (#88 in A/FGM). They are also great at getting to the FT line. They also have an up and coming coach who has had more than enough time to prepare. Gordon Hayward will stand at the top of the key and zip this thing around. Matt Howard (please stay out of foul trouble) is a great passing big man and I expect him to get his Greg Monroe on in the paint on this one. Mack and Nored are both Assist machines, so we have a team of Bulldogs that take care of the ball and move it aroudn well. They are a bit lacking in 3pt FG%, but Mack is hot and I expect him to step up in a big game, otherwise I hope these guys can convert some open 2 pt looks that should be possible with successful ball movement. As for the Cuse on O, hopefully the travel to Utah can get them out of their rhythm. If not, I expect a lot of perimiter pressure from Butler to prevent the ball getting in low, where Butler will simply have no chance. Veazley matches up VERY well with Rautins and Hayward will be in Wesley Johnson's shirt all night. I do not expect either guy to go off tonight. The Orange have major problems with Turnovers, and if Mack and some of these guys can pick a few off we've seen Syracuse have problems with transition defense (see Gtown in MSG). The Cuse can get out and run, that is for sure, but if Butler is taking smart shots and not turning it over (and NOT going for Offensive Rebounds..PLEASE) I am confident Rautins, Triche, Johnson, and Josepth will not have their highlight reel fast breaks. The total is actually pretty low for a Cuse game, so I expect something similar to the Louisville slugfests that Syracuse had this year, and lean under. I like Butler's chances to keep it close and hopefully devised an acceptable theory to go against the public wisdom.

*** Washington +4
* Washington ML +175
Mountaineers haven't seen a team like this since....Villanova. Truck Bryant does not appear to be a huge loss at first glance given the back-up is tourney veteran Mazzula, but you have to admit that West Va has had Truck holding the ball more than any other player on the team (almost as much as Butler! YIKES), so while he can't shoot either, the offense has been very reliant on Bryant starting the flow, and now its Joe. This is kind of being overlooked right now (in Vegas as well, line has only moved a half to one point). So lets take a deep dive into Joe Mazzula to see if we can get some insight. Joe has been around for awhile (red shirt junior) but has seen his playing time diminish each year, and 2007 may have been his peak. Today Joe is the back-up PG with the worst eFG% on the team and has a fouls called rate higher than Matt Howard. WOW. There isn't a starter on Washington with a Offensive Rating lower than 100. Joey comes in at 94 this year. All I'm saying, there is a reason Joe isn't the starter anymore, so tonight I'd like to introduce everyone to the other Isaih Thomas. The one who is just as fast as his name sake and is on the fringe of the top 100 in Fouls Drawn. If the Mountaineers don't have a true PG, who the fuck do they have when Joe has 3 fouls in the first half? This seems like an ENORMOUS problem to me, especially with Isaih Thomas on the opposite end. Add to the fact that Washington is very strong on the boards, and the only thing I'm worried about now is them travelling across country for this game. I expect this game to come down to the last possession, like many recent West Va games and almost identical to the UW-Marqette game (except hopefully no double digit deficit for UW to overcome). And I'm thinkin Isaih drops the game winner by dribbling around whatever 6-6 dude who can't keep up with him since Joe fouled out midway of the 2nd half.

** Xavier +5
* Xavier ML +200
Its a simple tale for everyone, Kansas State is hot and beat this team bad earlier in the year (never mind it was a young Xavier's first road test where they shot 29% from the floor and had the entire team in foul trouble). All I want to do is ask you all if you are watching the NIT? Because the Atlantic 10 is DOMINATING the NIT right now. And the 2 A-10 teams that lost in the tournament have lost to cindarella who is playing VERY well right now. Yes, the A-10 is a bit underrated, and Xavier is without question the most underrated team in the A-10. If the officials call 31 fouls on Xavier in this game, I will quit college basketball. Refs, please let them play tonight. The X-men just got it in on 2 very underrated defenses, and while Kansas St's is better, they should be prepared for it given the first and second round tests. If Xavier can just not turn it over (they actually won the TO battle last game!), the refs don't call every foul, and shoots 35% I like their chances. And again, Gus Johnson is in Utah. Its going down to the wire.

*** Cornell +8.5
* Cornell ML +350
Look one of these dogs is winning straight up, I'm just making sure I got my stacks on the one. All Cornell has to do is play zone and make them shoot 3s, I am confident their offense can keep them in it but the blowout happens if they are just going back and forth and getting burned on the break. I don't trust Kentucky from the perimiter so just keep it away from Cousins and Patterson...PLEASE.

Day 4 Picks

Started out hot and ended COLD goin 6-12 over all, got a bad beat on some totals at night but it is what it is...back to the drawing board...probably playing these large again to see if I can get back some stacks from yesterday...kinda happy with the Kansas result (knew an 8/9 would get a 1 and still think another is possible today) but Ohio State still needs to keep winning and the ACC is LURKING.

** Cuse/Zaga Under 149
Gonzaga gonna have an awful time trying to score on this 2-3 and hopefully their size inside slows down the Orange.

** Wisconsin -4.5
** Under 125
This total is flying up there, I guess people think Cornell's shooting will continue. I will be on the other side of that, on both accounts...nobody takes the 3 away better than Bo's Badgers.

*** Maryland -1
** Over 146
Gary don't let me down. Still think Spartans are not right, so playing this large, but they could dominate the paint in this one so Terps need Jordan to step up again. Maryland just too good offensively. Should be high scoring with both guards pushing the pace.

* Missouri +6
Fading the big public bet of the day and Huggy always good for a letdown, but 'Eers are rolling and Mizzou not the same team as last year (or earlier this year)

*** Xavier +1
Another ripe Big East team to fade, Xavier looked VERY sharp on offense against an underrated Gopher D.

** Purdue +2
Ewing Theory and public on A&M makes this one simple.

*** Cal/Duke Over 146
** Cal +6
Should be an up and down affair with hopefully Cal being able to hang around...both these could blow up though if Duke can actually guard awesome point guards this year. I think this will be the best game of the day.

Day 3 Picks

A mediocre 8-6 on Day 2...17-6 first round overall. 2-2 on the big plays though after an awful 0-2 on those yesterday. Totals are hitting strong so may unleash the beast on those going forward, a lot of these games have been tight (like one or two possession) so not a lot of late fouling yet, but games like Richmond/St Mary's are why I was using caution (like 30 points in the last 3 minutes as Richmond was trying to close a 10 point gap in the final 5 minutes). On to Round 2, and as usual, loving the dogs that in my opinion are playing much better than these power conference at large's, and this will be my LARGEST PLAYED day of the college basketball season. Yeah, ITS OFF AND POPPIN TODAY FOLKS!

*** St Marys +5
* St Marys ML +200
Its this simple, there is not a better 3 point defensive team left in the tournament than the Gaels. I don't know how its possible, but I think these Aussie white dudes have some length out there and Randy has them stretching waaay outside the 3 since Samhan can handle most the paint (seriously, there is only 1 team in college basketball that allows fewer 3s a game, and people aren't making them easily when they get them). Not confident they will be able to keep up with the penetration, or a 2 man game in the paint, but in Nova's awful play of late they have been settling for jumpers or some playground moves without dishing. If they finally wake up, we are in trouble, as the stretched D denying the 3 has left them exposed to give up more 2 point shots than any team in the nation. So will Jay Wright and Nova's guards figure this out? Well, if I have I'm going to be frightened if they don't, but I'm trusting Samhan to be the best post player in this game, and not foul on penetration (PLEASE!) which Scottie thrives on. The bottom line is, Nova either settles for 3s or penetration that leads to bail out foul calls, and I think this is NOT the way to beat an underrated St Mary's defense that is the best at stopping the 3 and doesn't foul much (did you see what Zaga did to FSU last night?!!? St Marys HANDLED that offense in Vegas 2 weeks ago). St Mary's also should block their fair share of shots, and if they can grab most the defensive boards (Nova is no Richmond in that regard, they can crash the glass) I think they are a 50/50 shot to win this game so there is SERIOUS value in the points and the fact that the Public is all over Nova makes me like the points even more, with a shot on the ML as well. St Mary's playing arguably the best basketball in the country the past 2 weeks...yes I'm serious, and I haven't even mentioned Nova's atrocious perimiter defense which McConnell and Dellanova should LIGHT UP, as well as their propensity to foul (Gaels probably the best FT shooting team left in tournament too). I'd like the over more if I trusted Nova to show up, but I have my doubts.

*** Ohio +8.5
* Ohio ML +350
Quickly becoming the tournament's darlings, the Bobcats have another favorable matchup against an impotent power conference team that can't effectively use its size advantage. The points won't come as easy against a much stouter defense, but the way these guys are playing it may not matter. Again, we have a major conference team that is weak on the boards (probably the best way to beat these mid major dogs) playing an Ohio team that they should dominate inside...but I don't think they will. Tennekey is another team that settles for 3s at times. Thats great, Goins ain't goin to hit 3s all day again, he is 29% on the season!!! Please Melvin, keep shooting. Bobcats don't turn it over and will definitely run with the Volunteers, and guys, get this, you will see Wayne Chism toss his headband at the bench because he will be in foul trouble. Ohio does this. Thank God it was such a blowout against Gtown that nobody noticed, but Ohio can and will get to the line in this matchup against an undisciplined volatile team. Ohio actually looked to have a deep bench with the PG, Cooper, being the only one playing 35+ so I think they will definitely be hanging around in this one and fighting tooth and nail like any MAC champ would. Another candidate for playing the best basketball the past few weeks, of course, nobody notices these things if you aren't doing them in the Big Least.


** Murray St +5
* Murray St ML +200
** Under 129
I think both these lines are inflated due to Butler's 3 point shooting barrage in the 2nd half against UTEP (courtesy of Mack, who is not this good at 3s), also the Public is loving Butler after watching them tear through their previous love affair, UTEP. I love me some Gordon Hayward, but he can be a non-factor at times not getting involved in the offense and Butler does appear to rely too much on points at the FT line and not sure how reliable that can be at times. Racers not at a size disadvantage like the matchup with Vandy, and not sure I put too much stock in Butler's Defensive Rebounding numbers garnered in the weak Horizon (did you see BYU rebound against Florida?!?!? Ken Pomeroy may need to adjust these rebounding figures for height or competition or something), and the Racers can get the Windex out on offense. Butler historically has problems with more athletic teams, and Murray St has the mojo going after a CLUTCH last second win. Butler's 2 pt defense could be exposed here, but Murray prefers a slow pace so hoping for close game in the low 60s. Oh and did I mention Tony Easley is a problem in the paint? People already forgetting all that Matt Howard foul trouble talk I was hearing before the UTEP game.

*** ODU +4.5
* ODU ML +200
** Under 128
Baylor will be your biggest public play of the day. I told yall I love some underdogs. I have no idea how the Monarchs do it, I watched them in person in Richmond when they miraculously came back against VCU and apparently had a similar comeback against Notre Dame after being down early. The offense is built around getting it into the paint, and that definitely includes bricking outside shots. Really, VCU may have been a blessing for ODU...a guard oriented team that is stronger on offense but gets by on D with a beast in the middle. Larry Sanders vs Udoh!?!? I don't know...I'm kinda feelin Sanders (pause)...and dude was lost against all the height of ODU. Udoh definitely overplays to increase his block rate, and thats going to lead to a lot of 2nd chances of the finest kind for ODU, layups. They need those people, they can't make anything outside the paint. Tweeny vs Joey Rodrigues!??! Yeah probably Tweeny, but ODU confuses PGs by switching defenses often, and the zone is just as strong as man-to-man. Lacedarius Dunn WILL be a problem for the Monarchs, but my dog Ken Bazemore may be up to the calling (probably the sickest athlete on the court today). They handled arguably a better offense in Notre Dame on Thursday, and I think they prove yet again that defense and half-court execution prevails in tournaments. As for the under, ODU and VCU wouldn't have gone over this if not for OT and that was a fast pace game, Baylor doesn't speed it up so if ODU is playing strong D this should go under.

** Washington -1.5
*** Over 150
Marquette and New Mexico have A LOT in common except for pace. Both love the 3 and neither can defend the paint. If Washington got over this total with Marquette I haven no idea what Vegas is thinking here. This should be a FT fest. Beware the Lobos great play in close games (also will be the most popular Knockout pick of the 2nd round...always a red flag), so like the Over better as both teams should score at will. But New Mex also not great FT shooters and UW decent at taking away the 3 so favor the Huskies in a close one.

** Northern Iowa +12
** Under 127
I think we will get lots a value going against Kansas this tournament since they are everybody's favorite play. This matchup should be similar to the snails pace game in College Station that Kansas played against A&M. Not sure No Iowa can pull the upset, but are more than capable to make this game competitive, especially if its under 60 possessions.

** BYU +5
* Over 155
Can't get off the BYU bandwagon as they are my pick in this region, but I'm not trusting the defensive rebounding numbers I see on kenpom. They were just outmatched on the boards against Florida, and that will be a much bigger problem against Kansas St. BUT the Wildcat defense is very reliant on turnovers. If they break the press, then BYU should be either getting open looks or fouled (and they can hit the FTs). Going against 2 Big 12 teams I MUST BE CRAZY! I think we have the same issues the Big East is having here, these teams are not very good at team defense. Now, BYU not a great team to expose this (nor is ODU) since they most watch Jimmer dribble around then jack (not strong in A/FGM), but for the simple fact that they don't turn it over I'm trusting them to make this a game and not get run out of the gym (as Kansas St did to a similar OKie St team last week). Total a bit higher than I like but this should be the fastest paced game of the day.

** Wake +9
** Under 143
The sloppiest game of the day. Should be an up and down defensive slug fest with lots of turnovers and terribly attempted offensive maneuvers. Wake actually matches up REAL well with Kentucky inside, so if they can get Kentucky to settle for 3s look out, I think this has serious upset potential (and am sticking by my theory that an 8/9 will beat a 1 this year). But just don't trust the offense enough (sorry Ish) to pull this out. Kentucky has been real strong on D all season and nobody mentions that. I think the total has been set for people to POUND THE OVER assuming a very fast pace, so I am really big on the under given we have 2 top 10 defenses here...of course Ish and Wall could get layups repeatedly going back and forth.

KEEP GAMING!

Day 2 Picks

9-0 on opening day...unsustainable. Most sources confirm Day 1 trends continue into Day 2 of Round 1, so if you don't wanna ride me (pause) just ride these smaller conference champion dogs (or fade the Big Least). Lots of plays today, but only 2 3 stars again (a "big" play i guess) and going light on the totals since I'm still getting a handle on how tournament play affects them.

*** Minnesota Pick
Great spot to fade the public play of the day, Xavier. Gophers very stagnant on offense sometimes (no real playmakers besides Westbrook), but match up great with X's size in the paint and hopefully play enough sticky D on the perimiter to avoid Crawford heating up from 3. Efficiency stats say Minn very underrated and dangerous in this tournament, where nobody thinks they belong. Tubby, please get the ball to Haffarber.

* Cornell +4
* Over 119
Lots of hype on the Big Red against a dangerously underseeded Temple (its an awful matchup really), but got to keep riding the dogs even though I thought they'd be catching more points. Not afraid of Temple's perimiter D given Cornell's ability to pass the rock (34th in A/FGM in country) and their height. Cornell has too many seniors who are too efficient on offense for them to not show up in their last chance to make a run together. Both coaches intimately familiar with each other so hoping that helps the offense (and that Fernandez gets hot), and neither team turns it over so despite slow pace think over is worth a shot. BILAS DON'T LET US DOWN!

** Purdue -4
Siena too reliant on points in the paint and not strong enough rebounders to take advantage of a Hummell-less Purdue. They had problems with Fairfields center (as well as motivation) so JaJuan Johnson should carry the offense. Just seems like a bad matchup (the 'Due doesn't turn it over), and combined with the popular upset pick, I'll stick with the value in the Boilermakers.

** Clemson -1
Neither team can take care of the ball, but I trust Stitt and Andre Young to handle Missouri's pressure much better than Missouri's guards handling Clemson's. Of course, trusting Oliver Purnell not wise either. But Missouri not strong on the boards and too reliant on 3 ball, while Clemson should get a balanced offense going IF they can break the press. Oliver gotta get off the schnide, THIS IS IT!

* Wofford/Wisconsin Under 115
Still wary of my totals, especially given this low line, but should be a LOW possession game and if Wiscy doesn't turn it over (and keeps bricking 3s at their current pace) each team will struggle to get to 60 (similar to ODU/ND). Badger D should certainly be able to keep Dahlman in check.

*** Utah St +3.5
* Utah St ML +135
Turgeron is a great tournament coach, but A&M just seems average too me contrary to the efficiency stats. Nobody on the team has a threatening Offensive Rating, and the Offense is a bit too reliant on FTs in a Big 12 that fouls the shit out of you. Utah St doesn't do that. So I'm hoping the big man Tai Wesley has recovered from the broken nose and the Utah St shooters get hot.

* Fla St/Gonzaga Under 132
Hate picking sides in 8/9 game (but got one for later), and don't trust Seminoles to shoot well enough to win a tournament game, but trust their paint defense to slow down a Gonzaga attack that relies on points in the paint. Use MAJOR CAUTION though, I have been burned many times by a trailing Seminoles starting to foul every possession at like the 5 minute mark, so need a close game.

** Georgia Tech ML +110
Cowboys not strong on the road this year, and succeptible to be blown out by more physical, defensive teams that crash the boards (such as Kansas St). Cowboys very weak in the paint as well, this looks like a very bad matchup for them. James Anderson more than capable of winning this game, but if Ga Tech can control the TOs they should win this. It'd be 3 stars if James Anderson weren't here.

* New Mexico St +13
* Over 148
Bit too much public love for New Mex St, but believe line is inflated due to Izzo and see value. Something not right with Spartans this season, and while I think they pull this out, not sure they give the wall to wall effort required to put down a hot WAC team. Spartans should get anything they want in the paint, but 3 point defense is an issue so New Mex should expose that especially off any misses (if they can grab the rebound).

** California -1
* Over 149
Pac 10 clearly underrated and going to ride the Bears over a weak Big East team. the conference clearly has issues with defense, and against a team that shoots the lights out and doesn't turn it over I don't see how they stop them from getting 80. Hopefully Cardinals can put up points themselves to push this over. 3 stars possible but hate 8/9 sides.

Day 1 Picks

Byu -5***
Over 147*
Should be a high scoring up and down affair. Beware my totals, still getting my feet wet with them in tournaments. Might be a blow out too which would put this under. Love Byu to tear a part a SOFT gator D and get that first one.

Odu +3**
Under 122**
Fading the biggest public bet of the day, notre dame. Also think this will be a game in the 50s as ND is playing a Wisconsin pace and ODU can't make a perimiter shot.

Sam Houston St +11*
Just a fun underdog to take, could be a giant killer. All depends on the 3s and if Baylor is turning it over. Not feeling all this Baylor hype.

Murray St +3***
Murry St ML +130*
Awful matchup for Vandy who seems to fade every year at end of season and then drop the first round game. Turnovers could be a huge killer, Murray St VERY similar to a Cincinatti team that beat them in Maui. Vandy could pound it inside with Ogilvy which would be a problem, but love this as the first big upset of the tourney.

Butler -2.5**
Just think the more disciplined experienced team is the way to go here. UTEP all underclassmen, LOOK OUT next year, but this year is not their year in my opinion.

Washington +1.5*
Pac 10 a bit underrated and Huskies scorching hot. Should be able to get points in the paint here in what I think will be higher scoring that most think (Vegas set line at 142!!). Beware efficient Marquette with rising coach, so small play.

San Diego St +3.5**
Aztecs steaming hot and and should have a definite paint advantage in this one. Love how they slowed it down to beat UNLV, really worked their advantage. Only caution is the turnovers which Tennekey could use for easy buckets (since they suck at shooting) but going with better coached team with paint advantage (and the most underrated freshman in NCAA).

Can't make a pick on Richmond or St Mary's. Love both teams. Public certainly has caught on to the Spiders (Gold Sheet key release!), so liking the Gaels, but traveling east for an early start is a major problem here. I think I've switched this in my bracket 5 times. UNLV/No Iowa also a toss up. Lean to Montana but spread is now under 10 and Lobos can put up enough points to cover that, but its clear Montana isn't a team to quit.

GOOD LUCK AND KEEP GAMING!

There is a 2:1 favorite in the NCAA Tournament?

REALLY!?

I just saw an interview with some college hoops expert about the bracket and the ESPN guy asks "So who you got? Kansas?". This is incredible. Defense not as good as year's past under Bill Self, specifically an over-reliance on Cole Adrich and a lack of defensive rebounding. I love Sherron Collins, yes Mr. President he is the definition of a senior experienced guard, but this has reached a point of insanity. UNC was 2/1 last year, they were probably the most obvious dominant team we'll see in awhile, 3 years of chemistry together. Sherron is great but I don't think these younger guys get the team effort it takes to win 6 do-or-die games, that UNC learned the hard way. Marcus Morris and Tyshawn Taylor are 2 sophomores who are key players and weren't on the 2007 national championship team. There best 3 point shooter (not Morningstar, get real, he's just good for FTs) Xavier Henry is a freshman. This team had one close (huge winning margin) BIG (colorado ot? no) game this year, @ Kansas State where yes, Sherron the Don made it happen...but I don't know, I don't trust the other guys just yet to hit the big shot. I see Maryland, Michigan State, or Ohio State upsetting the Jayhawks...and at that point, this gets wide OPEN unless Cuse can beat BYU in Utah. West Virginia is the only team on the other half of the bracket I trust to win a tough close game, but they will have problems with Wisconsin or Kentucky (I have the Badgers in the Final 4 nbd). Thats why I'm picking Ohio St to win it all in my bracket. Great 3 point shooters (maybe a little too reliant, we will see) along with The Villain and The Beast (Lauderdale) and #3 overall in kenpom combined with a dominant conference tournament (big 10 underrated too)...there is a lot to like about the Buckeyes. No true point guard, but Evan Turner really plays like Magic Johnson so this may be a unique case where this doesn't hurt a team. They are +300 to win the Midwest, and +1500 to win it all (also jumping on the ridiculous juicy odds for Wisconsin, BYU, and Notre Dame to win regions and championship). I think this is INCREDIBLY cheap due to the Kansas Jayhawks over-favoritism and them being in the same bracket.

But Evan Turner can melt down and lose his composure very easily (Kansas frustrates you)...especially if his teammates are not playing well...but fuck it, I can't take all this Kansas hype and a season long feeling the Big 10 is the most underrated conference in the country...in a season filled with few teams that combine NBA talent with coaching excellence and a team desire that survives a do-or-die scenario 6 times, I'll go to Big 10 basic well coached veteran teams with underrated superstar NBA talent in the making (The Villain, Trevon Huge)...The Badgers and Buckeyes in the final. and i'll pick the winner on Easter.

the forgotten South

Notes: Not alot of love for the South region. I'm fine with that, as this should be the wildest region of the tournament. Lots of upset potential in seeds 10 -14 and a very week at-large big conference group from seeds 1 - 5. If Duke can survive a strong California team that matches up very well with them, they should reach the Elite 8. Who they face there is the big question mark. Nova has looked very vulnerable of late and the efficiency numbers don't paint a great picture on defense. Richmond has the guards to hang with Nova's strength and could pull the upset if they take care of St Mary's. Siena is the most likely upset due to Purdue's last few games, but cindarella may be the Utah St Aggies who showed some fight in last year's first round. Also don't rule out Notre Dame, a team with fantastic guards and a suddenly deep front court. They are playing at a Wisconsin-like tempo that could be successful against Baylor (who could have its own cindarella-itis with Sam Houston).

The Pick: Notre Dame. Tory Jackson gets this new system. The guy is the most underrated PG in college basketball. The frontcourt is LOADED with Tyrone Nash and Carleton Scott forming a lethal offensive duo (specifically on the boards). Add in Luke Haragondy and a set of 3 pt assassins and I'm not sure how the Irish aren't the popular pick (yet Baylor is). They could easily lose to Old Dominion. But match up great in potential matchups with Baylor and Villanova.

First Round Preview

Duke vs PIG
Duke hasn’t really shown it to me this season. The numbers are good but in most their big games they look shaky and definitely aren’t covering the spread. Not sure the PIG will offer much of a test just yet. Line Estimate: Duke -16

California vs Louisville
Bears flying out to Florida but game is at night so hopefully not a huge change of venue problem. Cardinals weak on defense this season and press will be unsuccessful against Cal team that is a stranger to turnovers. Pace should be plenty fast so love the over unless total is above 160. Lean Bears. Line Estimate: Cal -2, O/U 155

Texas A&M vs Utah St
Aggie on Aggie crime. Love the Utah version in this spot after playing Marquette TOUGH last season. WAC very underrated while Texas A&M has had issues with explosive offensive units, and Utah St can score with the best of em. Line Estimate: Texas A&M -4

Purdue vs Siena
Tough to back Boilermakers but this will be the most popular upset pick by far so maybe stay away. Saints are VERY good and have demonstrated strong tournament performance. Line Estimate: Purdue -1

Notre Dame vs Old Dominion
Probably my least favorite game to have to pick a winner. I love both of these teams. Old Dominion is so strong inside and play amazing defense, and have shown a will to win in their CAA performance. However, new look Notre Dame matches up very well inside and now with their slow pace and Tory Jackson have a superior back court. Love the CAA and the Monarchs, but going with the Irish. Under also looks very strong, as Notre Dame is playing at a Wisconsin-like pace currently. Line Estimate: Notre Dame -2 O/U 125

Baylor vs Sam Houston St
This should be a high total. Sam Houston St can get out and score, and do it mostly from 3 where Baylor is weak defensively. Lots of Baylor hype, not buying into it. Udoh can only score so much, he may have to get over 30 to keep them in this. Both teams should hit 40 if Baylor gets into Sam Houston’s track meet. Look out Baylor, this could be your early exit. Line Estimate: Baylor -11, O/U 150

Richmond vs St Mary’s
Love both these teams as well. Tough spot for St Mary’s traveling out to Providence for an early start and having over a week off (will come out very flat). Spiders are a strong sleeper in this region of the bracket, and I like them to get on a roll behind PG Kevin Anderson. St Mary’s may be too reliant on the 3 and Samhan will have to have a huge game to lead them to the W. Line Estimate: Richmond -3

Villanova vs Robert Morris
Robert Morris could surprise, the team did look tough in its conference final at Quinnipac. But Villanova too battle tested after last year’s run so don’t expect a suddenly vulnerable looking Nova team to fold just yet. Line Estimate: Nova -13

unleash the East

Notes: Kentucky is a total wild card. Could be similar to the 06-07 Florida squads and decide to turn it on when it matters, but don't think Kentucky has the clutch 3 pt assassin like Humphrey (forgiveness to Eric Bledsoe) to bail them out if they don't show up (unless Cousins can keep hitting game winners). Very young team that didn't show consistent dominance in a very weak SEC. Should be a relatively chalky region with few "seed" upsets but Cornell and possible Washington show the best potential in that respect.

The Pick: Wisconsin. A talented group of veteran players with an underrated coach playing some of the most efficient basketball in the country is always a dynamite combo in the tournament. Of course they have been weak on the road yet again, but Trevon Hughes has been clutch in the final minutes and Bohanon, Taylor, Leur, etc certainly capable of hitting a big 3. If they can survive the first weekend I love their chances to matchup with Kentucky and then West Virginia (who should cruise through the bottom half of this bracket).

Possible Cindarella: Montana

Reverse Cindarella: Washington.

First Round Previews

East Tennessee St vs Kentucky
Don’t confuse this ETSU team with the one that almost beat Pitt last year. Gone are the 3 best offensive players from that team. However, Kentucky definitely can let inferior competition hang around and ETSU uses a zone (which is the best way to beat the Wildcats). But too reliant on points in the paint that will be nonexistent against this Kentucky defense, so total may be worth a shot if set too high due to fast pace. Line Estimate: O/U 145

Texas vs Wake Forest
Love this matchup. Both teams have to be considered Final 4 threats if they get their acts together in this matchup, but not likely given conference tournament letdowns. No way you can trust either team as they are just as likely to lose this game as play into next weekend. Lean Texas given Wake’s precedent last year of not getting its act together. Line Estimate: Texas -2

Temple vs Cornell
Best 3 pt shooting team versus best 3 pt shooting defense, something’s gotta give. Love the A-10 and Temple is very underseeded. A week off may have cooled the Big Red while Temple won a competitive A-10 tournament. However, Cornell has great ball movement and a good PG to distribute to the array of 3 pt weapons, so an upset not out of the question, especially given Temple’s 1 in tournament win in the last 11 appearances. Cornell full of seniors and also underseeded. Line Estimate: Cornell +7, O/U 120

Wisconsin vs Wofford
Wofford a dangerous matchup for my Badgers but Wisconsin has performed well in first round under Bo Ryan. Not sure Wofford gets enough from 3 to hurt Wisconsin’s defense, so Badgers should escape in a tight low scoring game. Line Estimate: O/U 120

Washington vs Marquette
Awful on the road and in neutral sites early on, apparently everyone thinks they have turned the corner with a 4 point win over California in the Staples Center. Huskies definitely have talent to survive the first weekend, and catch a nice break playing in San Jose. Quincy Pondexter can get his on the inside hear so lean Washington. Line Estimate: Washington +3

New Mexico vs Montana
Montana can stroke it. Big Sky is a bit underrated and is a solid second tier mid major (almost up there with the MAAC and MAC) so Montana should be able to hang with an overseeded New Mexico team. Never say die attitude and big play potential from Anthony Johnson combined with a slow it down half court game leads me to liking the under if up in the high 130s/140. Line Estimate: O/U 140

Clemson vs Missouri
Missouri has looked pretty TURRIBLE when I’ve watched or was involved in one of their games. Great matchup but think Clemson can dominate the paint and Missouri will not be good enough from outside to take advantage. Clemson shits the bed frequently, so beware a turnover fest, but Missouri did not close the season well and don’t think they rally here. Line Estimate: Clemson -1

West Virginia vs Morgan St
MEAC champ Morgan St back in tournament with Todd Bozeman but not sure they got the best of matchups against a hot West Virginia team that should handle the boards and dominate end to end in this one. Line Estimate: West Virginia -12

how did we end up in the West

Notes: The bracket nobody wanted to be placed in due to geography and the lack of competitive college basketball in this region (but beware the WAC!). Not sure there is a team that can beat Syracuse here, but the Orange can have problems on offense, specifically turnovers, at times, so matchups with Florida St and Murray St could actually pose big problems. A few possible sleepers here is Cuse slips up, specifically in the bottom half of the bracket where I think Kansas St and Pitt are very overrated. I see a BYU-Xavier matchup in Salt Lake City and that will be quite a battle despite the seeding. If BYU can lose at home to a very similar New Mexico team, I like the X-men's chances of maybe crashing the Final 4. Coach Chris Mack could be a sleeping giant as he has been a 10 year assistant under Skip Prosser and Sean Miller, two great coaches, and had this team at the top of a tough A-10 conference. Most likely upset is Murray St over Vandy, and Murray St could go to the Sweet 16 to face Cuse. Look out for North Texas over Kansas State as biggest upset of tournament.

The Pick: Syracuse. If they show up they should win, but again problems on offense could be their undoing in games against Florida St or Murray St.

The Darkhorse: Xavier. One of the most underrated, underseeded teams in the tournament.

First Round Previews

Syracuse vs Vermont
Loss of Onuaku could really hurt the Orange offense. Yes they have Joseph and Jackson but if Vermont can get in the paint they can draw fouls (#5 FTA/FGA) and would be interesting to see how deep Cuse’s bench is with the big guys if there is any foul trouble. Still, not sure Blakley and Maurice Joseph can score enough to make 16 over 1 happen, but can definitely hang around. Lean under as Vermont should slow pace and Cuse has trouble scoring in half court. Line Estimate: Cuse -16, O/U 146

Gonzaga vs Florida St
FEAR THE SPEAR! Not sure Gonzaga has the defense to expose Florida St’s offensive and turnover woes. Zags are going to have a hell of a time scoring on this defense, something they have seen since…Wake Forest. Zags have been downhill since Maui, not sure they stop that in New York. Line Estimate: Fla St -1.

Butler vs UTEP
Great matchup, but tough for half court minded Butler against a more athletic UTEP squad that prefers an up and down pace. However, Butler more experienced and shown ability to survive the do-or-die pressure, something UTEP didn’t really see until Sunday against Houston (where they melted down). Strong experience and coaching edge, along with ability for Butler to draw fouls (UTEP defensive weakness) should see a Butler victory over the popular upset pick, UTEP. Line Estimate: Butler -4

Vanderbilt vs Murray St
This is a brutal matchup for an underrated Dores squad. Murray St can force turnovers and crashes the offensive boards, two things Vanderbilt has not done well. Will be a popular upset pick, but doesn’t look good for Vandy. Line Estimate: Murray St +6

Xavier vs Minnesota
Two underrated squads but Gophers not impressive on road or neutral sites til beating impotent and reeling Purdue and Michigan St teams to earn a bid. Xavier 3 pt defense strong enough to contain a Minn offense that can be very stagnant and frustrated at times. Atlantic 10 underrated, look for Muskateers to surprise. Line Estimate: Xavier -3

Pittsburgh vs Oakland
Oakland one of the worst 14 seeds I’ve seen so overrated Panthers get a break. Unlikely to cover a large number but not worth time, under may be worth a shot as Pitt is no stranger to terrible shooting. Not out of the question to see some Cindarella potential in Oakland as senior Jonathan Jones is a little guy America could come to love, and a young Pitt team with an ugly non-conference performance is capable of blowing one. Line Estimate: Oakland +12

BYU vs Florida
BYU should have its way with a leaky Florida defense in this one, but it’s the defense that has always let BYU down in the tournament. Fredrette could carry them far into this bracket, but the defense is still shaky. Unlikely they lose to a NIT Florida team. Line Estimate: BYU -6

Kansas St vs North Texas
North Texas can grab defensive rebounds and get to the free throw line, yes, Kansas State may be in a world of trouble. Not much of a believer in Clemente and Pullen who, while very talented, can lose their heads in a similar fashion to coach Frank Martin (not a good combination in tournament time IMO). North Texas very overmatched but fear the upset potential here as the Sun Belt champ has stepped of lately and the game in Oklahoma City is very neutral.

the big bad scary Midwest preview

Notes: For being described as the "most unpredictable" and "toughest" region in the tournament, this one looks pretty chalky to me. Kansas and Ohio St are unlikely to lose before the showdown in Saint Louis. Georgetown v Tenn and Michigan St v Maryland look like locks for 2nd round matchups, and the winner of each will definitely cause problems for Ohio St/Kansas. Cindarella threat is unlikely to be found here, but was a fan of Northern Iowa til the 9 seed came. San Diego St got screwed playing in Rhode Island (with honorable mention to Maryland's late start). Most likely upset is Georgia Tech over Oklahoma St, but Michigan St has been very unimpressive this season and is probably the most "upsettable" favorite (honorable mention to Georgetown Hoyas, not sure Arman Bassett can keep it going for Ohio though).

The Pick: Kansas. You gotta hit the offensive glass to beat the Jayhawks, whose defense is slightly weaker than years past due to allowing more 2nd chance points, but Ohio St not strong in that regard and game in St Louis makes Kansas a good favorite to return to the Final 4.

First Round Preview

Kansas vs Lehigh
No play on the spread, but over worth a shot. Lehigh coach Brett Reid could use a slower pace since they are so overmatched inside, but they are #55 in tempo and can RIP THE ROPE from 3, the one weakness in Kansas’ defense (a defense not as good as past Jayhawks squads). Line Estimate: O/U 141

UNLV vs Northern Iowa
Tough game, great matchup. Lean Northern Iowa since they are like San Diego St on corn and steroids and will beat the snot out of you in a slow paced fist fight, similar to how SD St knocked off UNLV. But beware Lon Druger in March. Line Estimate: Pick Em

Michigan St vs New Mexico St
Can’t go against Izzo here, but something not right with Spartans this year. Want to see them put in a full effort before comfortable with backing them. New Mexico St total wildcard (definitely have shooters #26 in eFG%) but will be very undersized inside. May want to beware the WAC right now, probably the most underrated mid-major conference (on par with MVC and CAA). Line Estimate: Michigan St -12

Maryland vs Houston
Not sure this total can be high enough. Houston may face some fatigue, but MD also traveling cross-country for a 12:50 EST tip. Terps should score at will but look out for a possible choke job against Tom Penders (won 12 NCAA tournament games in 10 appearances). But Houston weak inside, where you can hurt the Terps (look out for Michigan St!) so upset not worth wager. Line Estimate: Maryland -8, O/U 161

Tennessee vs San Diego St
Would like St’s chances more if the game weren’t in Rhode Island, but should still be a very competitive game. Volunteers have looked unbeatable at times but also very susceptible to an upset. Bruce Pearl not the most reliable coach, but I think a veteran Tenneky squad will have some strong offensive bursts this first weekend that will make them very dangerous alongside a defense that is #8 by efficiency standards. San Diego St has trouble with turnovers, but Tenn also prone to foul trouble inside where SD has some bangers to draw em. Tenn should win but not by much in a low scoring grind it out game, so lean under. Line Estimate: Tennessee -5, O/U 131

Georgetown vs Ohio
Bobcats a great story with Armon Bassett but may have blown load taking down the MAC. But if spread is too big, Gtown has been a poor large favorite this year and I believe Ohio will go down fighting. They can hit the boards and draw fouls, two things the Hoyas want no part of, look for Bobcats to keep it within DD. Line Estimate: Ohio +13

Oklahoma St vs Georgia Tech
Not sure I trust the Cowboys to take down a team this strong inside. Okie St very similar to Maryland this year, a team Ga Tech clearly had an advantage over. ACC a bit underrated this year, but can you trust Paul Hewitt to finally get it done? Team is loaded with talent but, as in 2007, may be more focused on the NBA draft. Did show a lot of heart in the ACC tournament, so lets hope this will be no repeat. Line Estimate: Ga Tech -2

Ohio St vs UC Santa Barbara
Gauchos pose a threat from 3, but not sure I can envision any scenario where Evan Turner blows up in this one (as in meltsdown and has a kobe-esque tantrum, the most likely scenario for Ohio St’s exit, see: November matchup with UNC). Not impressed with Ohio St’s road results but did look solid in Big 10 tournament. Tough team to get a handle on, I’m not sure I really trust them even though they dominated one of the best Big 10s in the past few years. Line Estimate: Ohio St -15

Pillow Fights over with...let the Madness begin

Early game plays, second session should be up round 5pm

Syracuse vs Georgetown
If Wright and Clark stay in the zone like yesterday, hopefully Freeman can contribute and we could see an outright upset. Line is probably set too high given the entire world expecting Cuse to bounceback, but beating a team 3 times is always difficult (a theme for today) so I expect Gtown to give a maximum effort. They have put together 2 fantastic defensive efforts lately and Syracuse has been weak at the offensive end at times.
Play: Georgetown +6

Marquette vs Villanova
Teams are too evenly matched and the Golden Eagles perimeter defense too stout to pass up the points. Again, beating a team 3 times is tough especially when the first 2 were as tight as these matchups.
Play: Marquette +5.5

Memphis vs Houston
Tigers playing very well of late and can take care of the ball so Houston defense shouldn’t pose much threat. Memphis knows they need a good run to get a bid, and Houston doesn’t play well on the boards to take advantage of Memphis’ weakness. Also coming off a tough loss @ Houston a few weeks ago. Unders have been the play thusfar in conference tourneys, but over worth a look these teams steam it up and down and Memphis much better at shooting this year.
Play: Memphis -6

UCLA vs Arizona
In conference play Wildcats have been superior team, so even though we are going against the 3 wins theory, Bruins not catching points makes it tough to back them. Vegas probably thinking semi-home court advantage and brand name will have people taking UCLA…not the case, Wildcats biggest threat to crash Pac 10 title game.
Play: Arizona E

South Carolina vs Alabama
Winner gets an NIT bid and a shot at Kentucky, LOT ON THE LINE HERE. Tide seems like the easy play getting Green back and having beating USC last week, but something tells me the ‘Cocks will be ready to go (and not just because it’s a Gold Sheet Key Release). Alabama has had some brutal scoring droughts, so while they can contain Downey with their superior defense, hopefully the big stage and the big arena lead to a few too many bricks with Downey taking over late.
Play: South Carolina +2.5

And so it begins...Championship Week. Monday Plays 3/8

Game of the Night and Play of the Night in Vegas. Shotout to Richmond and the CAA for an awesome two days of hoops in the Coliseum. LETS GO TRIBE!!!

ODU vs W&M
In 2008 the Tribe made a run to the CAA finals, upsetting favorite ODU in the quarters on the way. Here they are again on the verge of breaking the field of 64, but I just can’t see them pulling off the straight up win against an ODU team that just persevered against a very hot VCU team (in Richmond no less). The sticky man to man defense that extends all they way outside the 3 point line will just be too much for the Tribe, who haven’t put together a full 40 minutes yet this weekend. Without a full 40 of top notch effort, no way they win straight up. Schneider or McDowell could get hot and keep it close, especially given W&M will keep this to as few possessions as possible, but in the end they just don’t have any chance in the paint in this matchup, so will be completely reliant on 3s against the best defense in the conference. Under looks like a solid play, with a lean to ODU, but I’d love to see the Tribe in the Dance so will be pulling for them. Play: Under 117.5

Siena vs Fairfield
Been riding the Stags all season since watching them hang with the Terps for 30 minutes, but not sure they are capable of the straight up win here either. Siena has lost focus at times this season, but know they need this one to get a bid, so I expect maximum effort (unlike previous matchup after they had the 1 seed locked up). Rossiter can keep Johnson off the boards, which is crucial, so it will be up to freshmen phenom Derek Needham to carry the team, and just not sure he can do it in the biggest game of the season on the road against the perennial MAAC powerhouse Siena. Should be a wall to wall comfortable lead and hopefully they keep it in double digits. Play: Siena -7.5

Appalachian St vs Wofford
Only seen these teams play once each, but it was clear that Wofford relies on points in the paint and rebounds (from a Harangody-esque Dahlman), and aren’t really a team to get out and run and finish quick buckets in transition (they prefer a slowed down half-court game). That will be a problem against Appalachian State, who has a huge problem with turnovers. The way to beat them is taking these right back down the court and getting easy buckets. App State has some “ballers” for sure and some horses in the paint who can neutralize what Wofford tries to do on offense. Wofford appears the team of destiny as this is their first trip to the SoCon finals, but App St has been playing very well (beat Charleston handily, probably the 3rd best team in the conference) and I don’t see Wofford taking advantage of the turnovers, if they do I see this total going over, so playing that as well. Las time they met went over 150. Plays: App St +4.5, Over 135

St Mary’s vs Gonzaga
Bubble teams beware. The entire world is expecting a repeat of last year and not recognizing that while the Zags appear better given their new found size in the paint, their offense is much worse and the perimeter defense leaky. Also note that St Mary’s without Patty Mills is a much bigger perimeter threat, and Mickey McConnell is lights out. They just blew out a solid Portland team, and I expect them to keep it rolling tonight.
Play of the Night: St Mary’s +4 and St Mary’s ML +165

Saturday 3/6 Preview

West Virginia @ Villanova
Senior day for Scottie Reynolds. Seen a few of these big time guards (Collins, Vazquez) go off on senior night to know that you don’t want to go against them. Last time they matched up Nova guards got anything they wanted, Mountaineers defense not really quick enough to keep up. Just seems like a bad matchup for West Va, and they haven’t been the strongest road team this year. Line Estimate: Nova -6.

Cincinatti @ Georgetown
Great spot to back Hoyas who need a win to set up a first round BE bye, and while there are no seniors, expect a lot of emotion given the Freeman news. Bearcats running out of fight and probably won’t make NCAA tourney either way, and are awful ATS this year. Hoyas not great as home faves so use caution. Line Estimate: Georgetown -7

Tulsa @ Memphis
Tigers are heating up, look out in the CUSA tournament. Tulsa just never met expectations this year and doubt this is the spot for them to do it, as Memphis just popped the bubble of hungry UAB team on the road. Memphis not great ATS at home (4-7 ATS) but playing much better of late, especially on offensive end. Line Estimate: Memphis -7.

Richmond @ Charlotte
I’m in love with the Spiders. This is a great revenge spot. Charlotte had a hot run earlier but is now very overrated. 2-6 ATS at home. Richmond solid on the road. Not sure they’ll be catching points, but should have the desire to win this one even though locked up 3 seed in A-10 tourney. Line Estimate: Richmond -2.

USC @ Arizona
Southern Cal a feisty road dog so tempted if the points are large. Arizona struggled with UCLA while USC showed some fight in Tempe. Nic Wise senior day should be good for a game winner, but this one should be tight. Line Estimate: Arizona -3.

Maryland @ UVA
Terps undefeated as a road fave (4-0) and UVA tanking down the stretch. Beware this rivalry though and a Terp letdown, especially if UVA getting too many points. Line Estimate: Maryland -6.

Notre Dame @ Marquette
Can it continue? Golden Eagles catch another hot team and will pop another bubble as they remain underrated. Irish playing well but the run most likely stops here against a Marquette team that matches up very well with no ‘Gody. Line Estimate: Marquette -5

Syracuse @ Louisville
Last home game at Freedom Hall. Could be a tough spot for Cuse, but after having already lost to the Cardinals at home you have to assume they will be ready for a maximum effort to close out the Big East season. Syracuse has had problems with TOs so watch the press. Over may have value after last meeting’s ugly game. Line Estimate: Syracuse -2, O/U 142
Kansas @ Missouri
Tigers can’t shoot like Okie St but hopefully will be fired up for the big game. Tough on defense, but just not sure Kansas can be defeated with the press as Sheron is so good at breaking it. But Jayhawks still unimpressive on road (yet to be a dog though) and Missouri one of the most underrated teams in the country (yet to be a dog at home though). Line Estimate: Pick Em

Purdue @ Penn St
LOOK OUT! Penn State playing much better these past few games and could be ready to pull the upset against a hobbling top 10 foe. Purdue 2-5 ATS as road fave, so if Lions catching enough points, bite. Line Estimate: Purdue -7

Texas Tech @ Colorado
Gonna ride the Buffs til the end of the year. Red Raiders plummeting, can’t wait for season to be over. Line Estimate: Colorado -6.

Ole Miss @ Arkansas
Gave up on them and just like that Rebels are back on the covering trail. Been great on the road, and have a revenge spot here. The winner of this game gets a bye in the first round of upcoming SEC tournament, and expect and up and down pace with lots of scoring. Very underrated game. Line Estimate: Arkansas -1, O/U 150

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech
Not sure Hokies can withstand the Windex job the Yellow Jackets should do. This should be a very fast high energy game that gets very sloppy at times. Probably best to stay away, Hokies still playing for first round ACC bye but both teams on bubble so should be giving it all. Line Estimate: Georgia Tech -2

UCLA @ Arizona St
Not sure the Bruins rebound from that meltdown last night. Sun Devils still on the bubble so will want a big win, look out though as they are a paltry 5-9 as a home favorite this year. Line Estimate: Arizona St -8.

Tennessee @ Miss St
Volunteers still mediocre on the road while Bulldogs will be looking for a big win to justify a bid, so expect Miss St to get a big W here. Both teams play good defense so see if high pace skews total. Line Estimate: Bulldogs -2, O/U 141

St Louis @ Dayton
Story of home and away here. Flyers have crushed it at home, and should be ready for a big win to boost A-10 seeding if Charlotte loses. Line Estimate: Dayton -6

Plays for Wednesday 3/3/10

Eternal return (also known as "eternal recurrence") is a concept which posits that the universe has been recurring, and will continue to recur in a self-similar form an infinite number of times. Remember this tonight when the Terps finally return back to their days of Duke domination.

Uconn @ ND
Huskies off a heartbreaker and Irish still rolling. Uconn perimeter defense seems a bit weak to me, and that’s where the Irish focus their attack without ‘Gody. Hopefully the defense really is improved without him, but playing the over as well just to be safe since UConn will look to push.
Play: ND -1.5, Over 143

St Joe’s @ GW
GW playing well of late while St Joe’s having worst season in awhile. Not sure they can keep it close these teams are just going opposite directions. Play: GW -9.5

Temple @ St Louis
Bilikens money as a home dog and this should barely break 100.
Play: St Louis +3, Under 111

Kansas St @ Kansas
Will hate myself for going against Sherron on senior night but this is too many points for a jayhawk team that hasn’t played well of late and is only 7-8 ATS at home.
Play: Kansas St +9

Kentucky @ Georgia
Again, people think these teams will bounceback. I’m not so sure, and Georgia is 5-0 ATS as a home dog. Play: UGA +8

SMU @ Tulsa
Ridin my Mustangs til it break. They’re even better on the road and Tulsa is VERY overrated. Play: SMU +9

Memphis @ UAB
Should be the time the Blazers finally get em. Play: UAB -3

Okie St @ Texas A&M
Give me senior night for a revenge minded well coached team that will get an inspirational speech from Derrick Roland against a team coming off their biggest win of the year. Play: A&M -6

Duke @ MD
Play of the night. Terps get revenge. MD +1.5

Tuesday March 2 Picks

Villanova @ Cincinatti
Not one for the square play, but this is a great matchup for Nova. Bearcats have some beasts downlow but a terrible 1-8 ATS at home. Nova defense gets shredded by fouling too much, but Bearcats awful at the line and don’t get their much anyway. Use caution as it is senior night and Cinci on the bubble, but Nova not terrible on the road and need to get back on track before the Big East tourney. Play: Nova -3.5

Minnesota @ Michigan
One word: UGLY. Not sure you could have faith in either side here (minn awful on the road this year), so looking to play under (played it their last matchup and got burned late). Either Michigan bricks all the 3s they are gonna get and this doesn’t get close, or they hit em and it flies over. Play: Under 125

Vanderbilt @ Florida
Vandy still getting no respect but this is the one Florida has to have so not sure a good spot for the Commodores. Also note that Vandy has never shown up in the Swamp (always losing by DDs). Instead look at the over. Both teams very leaky on D but great on offense, so hopefully Dores push the pace enough for both teams to get to 70. Play: Over 147, Lean Florida -3

UTEP @ Marshall
I’m on my CUSA sh*t. Love Marshall here. UTEP finally faces a team with the athletes and up-tempo pace to compete. UTEP fouls too much and Marshall can expose that. Play: Marshall -2

Georgia Tech @ Clemson
Clemson is 9-2 ATS as home fave. They have a fantastic defense. Its senior night. Ga Tech will get pushed into an uptempo game that really doesn’t favor them as they aren’t careful with the ball. Play: Clemson -7

Louisville @ Marquette
Cardinals are the new sexy team in big east bubble talk. That’s fine, just stay away from my Golden Eagles. Their spread run has to end at some point, but they know how to win the close ones and this is a big home game for them. Play: Marquette -2

Illinois @ Ohio St
People not really onto Illinois on the road yet, works for me. 5-1 ATS as a road dog. This may be a tough matchup, and Ohio St is looking to wrap up Big 10, but Illinois needs another big win and is road tested. Play: Illinois +10

Weekend Preview (2/27 and 2/28)

Great slate of games for hoops fans this weekend, might as well get a head start. Will follow up with official plays tonight or tomorrow AM.

SATURDAY

BC @ GTech
Total blowout. Ga Tech with a week to prepare should win by DDs as their offensive woes should benefit from a terrible BC defense. Could be in the midst of another Yellow Jacket meltdown though so some risk, but have been awesome at home (5-2 ATS as home faves). Line Estimate: GT -7

Kentucky @ Tennesee
Tennekey a bit overrated so fear the popular upset pick, as Kentucky has been playing phenomenal D of late, but Tennekey coming of a loss should be ready for a maximum effort to pull the upset. Tenn has been awful ATS and Bruce Pearl is not a great coach. Kentucky has not been a dog yet this year, so very interested in what this comes in at. Probably will not play it unless Tenn is favored or the gambling public is all over Kentucky. Really just don’t believe in Tenn enough, but they are 1-0 ATS as a home dog (upset #1 Kansas). Line Estimate: Kentucky -2. Under may be worth a look if its close to 150, fast paced game but should be intense and defensive like Kent @ Vandy.

Michigan @ Ohio St
Beware Michigan as road dog (5-1 ATS) but this has blowout of the day written all over it. Rivalry game, payback, and a Michigan team that may have quit after that Illinois embarrassment. Willing to lay big number. Line Estimate: Ohio St -11.

ND @ Gtown
Fear the Irish. Team is now well equipped to handle not having ‘Gody, and Nash may be better. Gody took too many shots away from guys who are probably better shooters. Still don’t trust Gtown and ND will be ready to score a big win. If catching double digits, take Irish as Gtown is 4-6 ATS as home favorite. Line Estimate: Gtown -8.

Iowa St @ Colorado
Buffs at home a nice little secret of mine, 4-2 ATS as favorite. Coming off a rough road trip should be ready to pick up a W at home against an inferior opponent, just hope the spread is less than 5. Line Estimate: Colorado -4.

UNC @ Wake
Betting against UNC almost too easy now, so play Wake or stay away. Deacs off a tough road trip but have had a week to prepare and refocus. Should be a complete blowout but not a fan of laying double digits. Line Estimate: Wake -10.

Texas @ Texas A&M
Love A&M in this spot but am afraid of Texas with this new PG, really a great injury for Texas losing Balbay, as Barnes may never have figured out that Brown was that much better since he can hit shots. Will take Aggies if line is small, but wary of laying significant points as this game should be competitive all the way through. Note that Texas is 1-7 ATS on the road this year (1-5 as fave, 0-2 as dog). Line Estimate: A&M -2.



Cinci @ West Va
Might be tempted to lay the wood with Huggy goin against his old school. West Va either lets teams hang around or blows the doors off, so in this case not afraid to lay significant points. Beware the big east underdog though (especially a Cinci team desperate for a big win) and West Va horrible ATS at home this year (very overrated…but then again the whole big east is). Line Estimate: West Va -8.

Ole Miss @ Bama
Oh how far they’ve fallen! Always tough to give up on a team you liked (ole miss in this case) but that’s how the best do it (not sure I’ll be able to get over my crush on the Wisconsin Badgers though). Rebels just not playing very well, and Bama is a darkhorse to win the SEC tournament in my opinion. Well coached team, tough defensively, and if they get any guard play they will be flat out dangerous. Not much separating these teams so take the home court and the better coach if the line is low. Use caution, as Bama 0-3 ATS as home dog and Ole Miss is 6-2 ATS on road…but again, Ole Miss ain’t playin well (of course now they will probably win the SEC tournament). Line Estimate: Bama -1.

Arizona St @ Cal
The game nobody wants to talk about or give credit. Both these teams should be in the tournament if you ask me. Tough matchup for Devils though as Cal is unstoppable at times and have the range to beat this zone. Cal 9-4 as home fave and Ariz St 0-3 as road dog so not sure this is a spot to back the Sun Devils (but I do think they are underrated). Cal preparing for this as the game of the year. Line Estimate: Cal -8.

Maryland @ Va Tech
Awful spot for the Terps. Va Tech still underrated and coming off ugly loss, and how many ACC games can MD win a row? Looking ahead to Duke too. Risk being MD is 7-2 ATS on road, but 3-2 as dog. Line Estimate: Va Tech -3.

New Mexico @ BYU
Lobos playing bad of late and not covering either. Revenge game for a BYU team hitting on all cylinders. 9-5 ATS at home, should crush an overrated New Mex team. Line Estimate: BYU -9.

VCU @ Old Dominion
Last home game for Gerald Lee. People putting too much stock in ODU loss @ No Iowa. VCU not good on road, and ODU needs win to lock up #1 seed. Line Estimate: ODU -6.

Kansas @ Okie St
Jayhawks 3 wins away from undefeated Big 12 season (unheard of). Okie St 8-0 as home favorite, but 0-1 as home dog (loss to Texas). No way they are favored hear, but could spry the upset as Kansas can be beat from 3 (cowboy specialty…if they make em) and Stillwater is THE place for Big 12 upsets. If getting enough points I’m biting, Kansas 3-5 ATS as road faves. Line Estimate: Kansas -4.
Oregon @ UCLA
Doing it go save Ern? Big win @ SC for the Ducks, but too little too late. Last home game for Bruins, and Ducks are bad, put the SC win on SC’s offensive woes. Line Estimate: UCLA -5.

Arizona @ Stanford
Zona in a bit of a freefall and not sure how a young team rebounds after that disaster in Berkeley last night. Stanford blew one last night, so not sure they can refocus either. Zona yet to be a road favorite so will see if that happens. Line Estimate: Pick Em.

Oregon St @ USC
I’ve never seen a double digit total in college hoops, but if they don’t have one here I’m taking the UNDER. Total Estimate: 105

Houston @ SMU
Love Doherty and my Mustangs. Houston coming off big win but terrible on the road and allergic to half-court games. SMU not great at home but hoping line is low. Line Estimate: SMU -4.

Missouri @ Kansas St
Tigers underrated but payback for covering machine Kansas st. Missouri press could give them problems, but Wildcats 7-2 ATS as home fave. Bad matchup for Tigers as they have a role player injured and suck at defensive rebounds. Wildcats keep rolling. Line Estimate: Kansas St -5.

Villanova @ Syracuse
Both teams overrated, but Nova has had problems with teams that have big physical players (see losses to Pitt Uconn and Gtown), and nobody can top Cuse in that regard. Villanova decent on road but nothing impressive (2-1 ATS as road dog) but both road wins as dogs against Lousville and West Virginia, 2 teams that lack the strength size and “grit” of Syracuse. Cuse not great on offense, but Nova defense not strong enough to exploit that (of course neither is Louisville), but use caution of Cuse’s offensive disappearing act. Line Estimate: Cuse -4.

Washington @ Washington St
Huskies 1-6 ATS on road this year. They suck on the road. HOWEVER I think a page was turned last week with Gameday. If the huskies can get it going they could be dangerous in Pac 10 tournament. Cougars 0-2 as home dog and coming off a big win that again we can attribute to SC’s offensive problems. Spread should be lite given Husky road woes and Cougar senior night. Line Estimate: Washington -4. Over worth a gander if in the 150s.

SUNDAY

Northwestern @ Penn St
Over may be worth a look. Went for 151 last meeting as neither team plays defense yet you get a low total due to the slow pace both teams prefer. Total Estimate: 130.

Marquette @ Seton Hall
Love the Golden Eagles but this road streak can’t continue can it?!? Seton Hall picking up some bunnies of late but still an awful 3-7 ATS at home (2-5 as fave). Marquette still could be underrated though so if a dog play em. Line Estimate: Pick Em.

Richmond @ Xavier
A10 game of the week. No stopping Richmond of late, but Xavier 10-2 ATS at home (all as faves) and one of the most underrated teams (funny that RICHMOND is the team in Top 25 now). Great spot to play the X men as small faves, but caution being Richmond 4-2 ATS as road dog. Line Estimate: Xavier -4.

Louisville @ Uconn
Revenge spot for Huskies who are on a nice run of late. Louisville in jeopardy after 2nd half meltdown vs Gtown and now a brutal 3 game stretch to end Big East play. Could we see the end of the Pitino era? 3 losses in a row and a first round MSG exit could make it so. Cards 3-6 ATS on road (2-2 as dog) and will be itching for a win, but UConn will be just as focused (however a dreadful 4-9 ATS as home fave). Interested in UConn if line is low. Line Estimate: UConn -5.

Michigan St @ Purdue
Hummell injury will sway the line but FANTASTIC spot for Spartans. 4-3 as road faves (1-3 as dogs) but are in big need of a big win and what better place than a revenge game against a higher ranked opponent. Purdue on a nice hot streak of late but only 7-8 ATS at home. Willing to take small dog Sparty against a thin Purdue frontline. Line Estimate: Purdue -1.

Clemson @ Florida St
Nice payback spot for Seminoles who are playing great of late, but an ugly 3-9 ATS as home fave. Not sure if Fla St can handle this press so may want to watch, Clemson also desperate for a win, but 0-4 ATS as road dog and coming off brutal meltdown in College Park. Line Estimate: Fla St -4.

Duke @ UVA
UVA in a awful funk but always tough at home (5-5 ATS, always a fave) and run of losses against the bigger more athletic teams of the ACC. Duke road woes have been forgotten with recent run (still 2-5 ATS as road fave), but if laying DDs on the road, take an ACC home dog who finally has a chance to match up well. Line Estimate: Duke -9.

so it beings...

after a long hiatus, the gameplan returns.

wake forest/bc u138
-historic trends reason for high line, but wake is great at defense and can't buy a bucket. bc best scorer out.

george mason +4.5
-patriots shouldn't be this big a dog at home

st louis +1.5
-best defense nobody is talking about. a-10 has serious D this year.

vanderbilt -3
-better coach and off a loss and at home

texas tech +6
-oklahoma ain't this good...

michigan st -3 and michigan st/purdue o138
-purdue can't defend the 3 and is open to a fast pace. mich st backup guards (allen, lucious) turn it over but can shoot and fill-in better than everybody is giving credit. kind of afraid of michigan st blowing them out, purdue does not look right currently.