Day 2 Picks

9-0 on opening day...unsustainable. Most sources confirm Day 1 trends continue into Day 2 of Round 1, so if you don't wanna ride me (pause) just ride these smaller conference champion dogs (or fade the Big Least). Lots of plays today, but only 2 3 stars again (a "big" play i guess) and going light on the totals since I'm still getting a handle on how tournament play affects them.

*** Minnesota Pick
Great spot to fade the public play of the day, Xavier. Gophers very stagnant on offense sometimes (no real playmakers besides Westbrook), but match up great with X's size in the paint and hopefully play enough sticky D on the perimiter to avoid Crawford heating up from 3. Efficiency stats say Minn very underrated and dangerous in this tournament, where nobody thinks they belong. Tubby, please get the ball to Haffarber.

* Cornell +4
* Over 119
Lots of hype on the Big Red against a dangerously underseeded Temple (its an awful matchup really), but got to keep riding the dogs even though I thought they'd be catching more points. Not afraid of Temple's perimiter D given Cornell's ability to pass the rock (34th in A/FGM in country) and their height. Cornell has too many seniors who are too efficient on offense for them to not show up in their last chance to make a run together. Both coaches intimately familiar with each other so hoping that helps the offense (and that Fernandez gets hot), and neither team turns it over so despite slow pace think over is worth a shot. BILAS DON'T LET US DOWN!

** Purdue -4
Siena too reliant on points in the paint and not strong enough rebounders to take advantage of a Hummell-less Purdue. They had problems with Fairfields center (as well as motivation) so JaJuan Johnson should carry the offense. Just seems like a bad matchup (the 'Due doesn't turn it over), and combined with the popular upset pick, I'll stick with the value in the Boilermakers.

** Clemson -1
Neither team can take care of the ball, but I trust Stitt and Andre Young to handle Missouri's pressure much better than Missouri's guards handling Clemson's. Of course, trusting Oliver Purnell not wise either. But Missouri not strong on the boards and too reliant on 3 ball, while Clemson should get a balanced offense going IF they can break the press. Oliver gotta get off the schnide, THIS IS IT!

* Wofford/Wisconsin Under 115
Still wary of my totals, especially given this low line, but should be a LOW possession game and if Wiscy doesn't turn it over (and keeps bricking 3s at their current pace) each team will struggle to get to 60 (similar to ODU/ND). Badger D should certainly be able to keep Dahlman in check.

*** Utah St +3.5
* Utah St ML +135
Turgeron is a great tournament coach, but A&M just seems average too me contrary to the efficiency stats. Nobody on the team has a threatening Offensive Rating, and the Offense is a bit too reliant on FTs in a Big 12 that fouls the shit out of you. Utah St doesn't do that. So I'm hoping the big man Tai Wesley has recovered from the broken nose and the Utah St shooters get hot.

* Fla St/Gonzaga Under 132
Hate picking sides in 8/9 game (but got one for later), and don't trust Seminoles to shoot well enough to win a tournament game, but trust their paint defense to slow down a Gonzaga attack that relies on points in the paint. Use MAJOR CAUTION though, I have been burned many times by a trailing Seminoles starting to foul every possession at like the 5 minute mark, so need a close game.

** Georgia Tech ML +110
Cowboys not strong on the road this year, and succeptible to be blown out by more physical, defensive teams that crash the boards (such as Kansas St). Cowboys very weak in the paint as well, this looks like a very bad matchup for them. James Anderson more than capable of winning this game, but if Ga Tech can control the TOs they should win this. It'd be 3 stars if James Anderson weren't here.

* New Mexico St +13
* Over 148
Bit too much public love for New Mex St, but believe line is inflated due to Izzo and see value. Something not right with Spartans this season, and while I think they pull this out, not sure they give the wall to wall effort required to put down a hot WAC team. Spartans should get anything they want in the paint, but 3 point defense is an issue so New Mex should expose that especially off any misses (if they can grab the rebound).

** California -1
* Over 149
Pac 10 clearly underrated and going to ride the Bears over a weak Big East team. the conference clearly has issues with defense, and against a team that shoots the lights out and doesn't turn it over I don't see how they stop them from getting 80. Hopefully Cardinals can put up points themselves to push this over. 3 stars possible but hate 8/9 sides.