Notes: For being described as the "most unpredictable" and "toughest" region in the tournament, this one looks pretty chalky to me. Kansas and Ohio St are unlikely to lose before the showdown in Saint Louis. Georgetown v Tenn and Michigan St v Maryland look like locks for 2nd round matchups, and the winner of each will definitely cause problems for Ohio St/Kansas. Cindarella threat is unlikely to be found here, but was a fan of Northern Iowa til the 9 seed came. San Diego St got screwed playing in Rhode Island (with honorable mention to Maryland's late start). Most likely upset is Georgia Tech over Oklahoma St, but Michigan St has been very unimpressive this season and is probably the most "upsettable" favorite (honorable mention to Georgetown Hoyas, not sure Arman Bassett can keep it going for Ohio though).
The Pick: Kansas. You gotta hit the offensive glass to beat the Jayhawks, whose defense is slightly weaker than years past due to allowing more 2nd chance points, but Ohio St not strong in that regard and game in St Louis makes Kansas a good favorite to return to the Final 4.
First Round Preview
Kansas vs Lehigh
No play on the spread, but over worth a shot. Lehigh coach Brett Reid could use a slower pace since they are so overmatched inside, but they are #55 in tempo and can RIP THE ROPE from 3, the one weakness in Kansas’ defense (a defense not as good as past Jayhawks squads). Line Estimate: O/U 141
UNLV vs Northern Iowa
Tough game, great matchup. Lean Northern Iowa since they are like San Diego St on corn and steroids and will beat the snot out of you in a slow paced fist fight, similar to how SD St knocked off UNLV. But beware Lon Druger in March. Line Estimate: Pick Em
Michigan St vs New Mexico St
Can’t go against Izzo here, but something not right with Spartans this year. Want to see them put in a full effort before comfortable with backing them. New Mexico St total wildcard (definitely have shooters #26 in eFG%) but will be very undersized inside. May want to beware the WAC right now, probably the most underrated mid-major conference (on par with MVC and CAA). Line Estimate: Michigan St -12
Maryland vs Houston
Not sure this total can be high enough. Houston may face some fatigue, but MD also traveling cross-country for a 12:50 EST tip. Terps should score at will but look out for a possible choke job against Tom Penders (won 12 NCAA tournament games in 10 appearances). But Houston weak inside, where you can hurt the Terps (look out for Michigan St!) so upset not worth wager. Line Estimate: Maryland -8, O/U 161
Tennessee vs San Diego St
Would like St’s chances more if the game weren’t in Rhode Island, but should still be a very competitive game. Volunteers have looked unbeatable at times but also very susceptible to an upset. Bruce Pearl not the most reliable coach, but I think a veteran Tenneky squad will have some strong offensive bursts this first weekend that will make them very dangerous alongside a defense that is #8 by efficiency standards. San Diego St has trouble with turnovers, but Tenn also prone to foul trouble inside where SD has some bangers to draw em. Tenn should win but not by much in a low scoring grind it out game, so lean under. Line Estimate: Tennessee -5, O/U 131
Georgetown vs Ohio
Bobcats a great story with Armon Bassett but may have blown load taking down the MAC. But if spread is too big, Gtown has been a poor large favorite this year and I believe Ohio will go down fighting. They can hit the boards and draw fouls, two things the Hoyas want no part of, look for Bobcats to keep it within DD. Line Estimate: Ohio +13
Oklahoma St vs Georgia Tech
Not sure I trust the Cowboys to take down a team this strong inside. Okie St very similar to Maryland this year, a team Ga Tech clearly had an advantage over. ACC a bit underrated this year, but can you trust Paul Hewitt to finally get it done? Team is loaded with talent but, as in 2007, may be more focused on the NBA draft. Did show a lot of heart in the ACC tournament, so lets hope this will be no repeat. Line Estimate: Ga Tech -2
Ohio St vs UC Santa Barbara
Gauchos pose a threat from 3, but not sure I can envision any scenario where Evan Turner blows up in this one (as in meltsdown and has a kobe-esque tantrum, the most likely scenario for Ohio St’s exit, see: November matchup with UNC). Not impressed with Ohio St’s road results but did look solid in Big 10 tournament. Tough team to get a handle on, I’m not sure I really trust them even though they dominated one of the best Big 10s in the past few years. Line Estimate: Ohio St -15
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