Day 6

Dogs not coming through. Cornell just couldn't keep up, Washington just looked like it ran out of steam midway in the first half, and took a tough break (got it at 5 so a push) on the X-men who definitely showed up. Props to the A-10, I expect a Dayton-Rhode Island final in the NIT. The change of venue really appears to rattle teams, they have started slow and shots aren't falling early, this led to unders in the Butler, Cornell, and West Va game. So I'm looking for some unders tonight. Also, 3 big 10 teams tonight...and i'm going against all of them even though I think its the most underrated conference in the country. In other news, I nailed the Butler game...but am not hopeful for them to upset Kansas St. On to tonight...

* Tenn +4.5
*** Under 134
Because I'm picking every game here on out, I'll take the Volunteers with the points. They have been great as a dog (although the 2 big wins were both at home...and they were a dog against UK in the SEC tourney) and Ohio St is frighteningly thin and may wear down if the Volunteers really push the press. But mostly, I won't be betting on Ohio St the entire tournament as I have a vested interest in their success, and they are a big public pick (like Baylor) tonight. I do like the Under though. Tennessee is very good defensively so unless Diebler and Buford rain 3s its going to be the Evan Turner show if Ohio St is going to break 70. They won't push very fast, I believe if they break the press they'll settle into a half court set. Its very possible Turner-over could meltdown though due to the press which would push this over, Tennesee will take all turnovers for easy buckets (as in Ohio game). But Ohio St doesn't settle for 3s like Ohio, they settle for Evan Turner creating offense off his dribble...and he is likely to lose composure in any adversity. EVAN, BE A STOIC MY FRIEND! IT IS THE ONLY WAY TO LEAD!

*** St Mary's +5
*** Over 142
Enough Samhan. TALK ABOUT MICKEY McCONNELL. You know what, don't. I am tired of hearing excuses for why they can't keep up with Baylor. The only one I'm buying is nobody on St Marys can guard Lacedarius (my man crush on Mickey is making me biased here...he may not be able to handle Tweeny either)....but man, if they can keep up with the Nova guards?!?! I think the Gaels can hang around in this one. Yes, Baylor is the tallest team in the nation, but no, that doesn't change the fact that St Mary's is the 11th tallest and has 2 huge Australians to go along with Samhan. Baylor has been great ATS but this is finally a steep price. This game seems VERY similar to last night's Xavier/Kansas St matchup...2 efficient offenses going blow for blow...and man, these defenses are even worse. So yes, this is one case I like the Over, but no, i'm not taking the Gaels ML.

*** No Iowa ML
*** Under 122
I'm this crazy. Going LARGE (again) against Izzo in the tournament. Don't care (also taking the Under for the same amount to save face). I stand by my theory that something is not right with Michigan St this season. Maryland is no stranger to letting teams annihilate them on the boards and giving up a plethora of wide open 3s. But to believe that is going to happen against Northern Iowa tonight is insanity. Lucas isn't a big loss in the ballhandling PG sense, but he is in perimiter shooting. Even though he hit a game winner, Lucious is not a strong shooter, but could limit Michigan St's TOs (which they have had problems with). This should be a good old fashioned Big 10 barn burner. No Iowa is like the 10th slowest team in Division 1, and Mich St isn't going to get out and run. The only time to get Izzo is on the opening game of the weekend, and if they win this they are a serious Final 4 and National Championship contender...again. WOW.

*** Duke -8.5
The Gophers beat the PISS out of Purdue. Michigan St beat the PISS out of Purdue (on the road). Duke is the biggest team they will play since those two teams (HA!). I fear the Boilermakers continued desire and motivation to show how good they are this year even without Hummell (and I love the Big 10), but things like that allow you to gut a win out against an average Texas A&M team. Duke is for real right now, and I think playing the best ball of all the chip favorites. Purdue can get torched from 3 and Duke has the size to dominate the paint and the boards, especially with Hummell out. This just seems like a total mismatch to me. Duke slowed the pace to shake off Cal, but I think they will look for chances to push against a Purdue team they know is weak on offense. Coach K is kinda outclassing cats right now, and I think that will continue here against Matt Painter who hasn't really done much on the big stage yet. Initially leaned to the under given Purdue's likely offensive woes, but just seems too low for a game that could see Duke get to 70...I really think they are going to blow it up from deep. Also, last game was 58 possessions (the slowest Duke game of the year) and they still hit 121. If this one is just as slow it should go under, but Duke could get to 70...