the forgotten South

Notes: Not alot of love for the South region. I'm fine with that, as this should be the wildest region of the tournament. Lots of upset potential in seeds 10 -14 and a very week at-large big conference group from seeds 1 - 5. If Duke can survive a strong California team that matches up very well with them, they should reach the Elite 8. Who they face there is the big question mark. Nova has looked very vulnerable of late and the efficiency numbers don't paint a great picture on defense. Richmond has the guards to hang with Nova's strength and could pull the upset if they take care of St Mary's. Siena is the most likely upset due to Purdue's last few games, but cindarella may be the Utah St Aggies who showed some fight in last year's first round. Also don't rule out Notre Dame, a team with fantastic guards and a suddenly deep front court. They are playing at a Wisconsin-like tempo that could be successful against Baylor (who could have its own cindarella-itis with Sam Houston).

The Pick: Notre Dame. Tory Jackson gets this new system. The guy is the most underrated PG in college basketball. The frontcourt is LOADED with Tyrone Nash and Carleton Scott forming a lethal offensive duo (specifically on the boards). Add in Luke Haragondy and a set of 3 pt assassins and I'm not sure how the Irish aren't the popular pick (yet Baylor is). They could easily lose to Old Dominion. But match up great in potential matchups with Baylor and Villanova.

First Round Preview

Duke vs PIG
Duke hasn’t really shown it to me this season. The numbers are good but in most their big games they look shaky and definitely aren’t covering the spread. Not sure the PIG will offer much of a test just yet. Line Estimate: Duke -16

California vs Louisville
Bears flying out to Florida but game is at night so hopefully not a huge change of venue problem. Cardinals weak on defense this season and press will be unsuccessful against Cal team that is a stranger to turnovers. Pace should be plenty fast so love the over unless total is above 160. Lean Bears. Line Estimate: Cal -2, O/U 155

Texas A&M vs Utah St
Aggie on Aggie crime. Love the Utah version in this spot after playing Marquette TOUGH last season. WAC very underrated while Texas A&M has had issues with explosive offensive units, and Utah St can score with the best of em. Line Estimate: Texas A&M -4

Purdue vs Siena
Tough to back Boilermakers but this will be the most popular upset pick by far so maybe stay away. Saints are VERY good and have demonstrated strong tournament performance. Line Estimate: Purdue -1

Notre Dame vs Old Dominion
Probably my least favorite game to have to pick a winner. I love both of these teams. Old Dominion is so strong inside and play amazing defense, and have shown a will to win in their CAA performance. However, new look Notre Dame matches up very well inside and now with their slow pace and Tory Jackson have a superior back court. Love the CAA and the Monarchs, but going with the Irish. Under also looks very strong, as Notre Dame is playing at a Wisconsin-like pace currently. Line Estimate: Notre Dame -2 O/U 125

Baylor vs Sam Houston St
This should be a high total. Sam Houston St can get out and score, and do it mostly from 3 where Baylor is weak defensively. Lots of Baylor hype, not buying into it. Udoh can only score so much, he may have to get over 30 to keep them in this. Both teams should hit 40 if Baylor gets into Sam Houston’s track meet. Look out Baylor, this could be your early exit. Line Estimate: Baylor -11, O/U 150

Richmond vs St Mary’s
Love both these teams as well. Tough spot for St Mary’s traveling out to Providence for an early start and having over a week off (will come out very flat). Spiders are a strong sleeper in this region of the bracket, and I like them to get on a roll behind PG Kevin Anderson. St Mary’s may be too reliant on the 3 and Samhan will have to have a huge game to lead them to the W. Line Estimate: Richmond -3

Villanova vs Robert Morris
Robert Morris could surprise, the team did look tough in its conference final at Quinnipac. But Villanova too battle tested after last year’s run so don’t expect a suddenly vulnerable looking Nova team to fold just yet. Line Estimate: Nova -13