I'M A BASEBALL JUNKIE 6/24-6/26

Yes, 45 baseball game previews. Plays first.

FRIDAY
Snakes (and Over)
Cubs

SATURDAY
Reds/Os Over
Cubs
Astros
Dodgers
Marlins

SUNDAY
Tigers
Rockies
Rangers
Brewers
Dodgers (and Under)

VALUE ALL WEEKEND
Astros
Rockies
Padres

MONDAYs NEWS
- Chaos ensues after Padres, Astros, and Rockies pull improbable sweeps, and unfortunately the Pirates and Royals are still terrible.

THE REASON

Reds v Os... Os rebound and Reds are overrated?
- FRIDAY volquez underrated with a SIERA around 4, has been sharp since return from DL. Jakubaskas with a 4.5 SIERA through 3 starts so slightly underrated, can have problems with the HR ball. Reds power dropping, and team in a bit of a funk, seem overrated currently…also have a major drop off when facing a righty. Os have to be ready for this series after a brutal road trip, but have been playing awful so tough to get a read on, maybe a live dog all weekend but playing too poorly to back here.
- SATURDAY reds eat lefties so horrible spot for matusz, arroyo pretty inline with peripherals at a 4.5 SIERA. Over worth a look.
- SUNDAY bailey coming off DL but showed a solid 3.6 SIERA through 5 starts. Guthrie a bit overrated with a 4.4 SIERA, too many fly balls so victimized by the HR, again reds haven’t been hitting much power lately so not sure this is the weekend they turn it around, could drop 2 of 3 here.

Diamondbacks v Tigers ...Snakes for real? If they can hit Verlander.
- FRIDAY duke finally having problems and SIERA up to 4.25 through five starts, but coke very overrated with the 5.2 SIERA. Dbacks rolling, both teams can get to lefties but Snakes a clear $heet play.
- SATURDAY collmenter overrated with a 4.0 SIERA, doubt much value against verlander but not as close as people would even think
- SUNDAY Saunders with a 5.04 SIERA and overrated, while penny mostly in line with peripherals at 4.8. Tigers prefer lefties so think they win here.

Rockies v Yankees...Rockies FTS! (For the Sweep)
- FRIDAY ubaldo getting it together has brought SIERA down to about 4, still overpriced probably but definitely better than earlier this year. A.J. with a 4.14 SIERA not as bad as most would assume, interesting game, Yankees have to be favored but Rockies kinda coming alive, think they take this one.
- SATURDAY cook with a 4.95 SIERA through three starts this year, so about as bad as he looks. Sabathia a bit overrated with a 3.95 SIERA, rockies prefer lefties, if they keep hitting they can certainly overcome a 5 ER start from cook, so value on the Rocks this weekend.
- SUNDAY keep reading good scouting writeups on nicasio, still haven’t seen him though, SIERA at 3.77 makes me believe though, but only five starts. Nova with a 4.56 SIERA goes between great performance and terrible one, caught the Reds at a good time, think he goes down here. Yes, Rockies too sweep and turn their season around, still underrated per 3rd order winning % on bp (Pythagorean)

Mets v Rangers ...Rangers pitchers aren't as good as they look.
- FRIDAY pelfrey as bad as he looks with the 4.67 SIERA, but Harrison with the 4.82 SIERA is very overrated. Unfortunately mets are brutal against lefties, so tough to make a case for them here, certainly have value as Harrison overpriced.
- SATURDAY ogando and his 3.99 SIERA still has a way to go, so correction only beginning. Niese inline with peripherals at 3.8, texas has decent splits, slightly prefer rightes though, so mets will have value again as texas starters overrated.
- SUNDAY Holland underrated with his 4.17 SIERA and mets can’t hit lefties, gee overpriced and public sporting a 4.4 SIERA great spot to get the Rangers on the low.

Nationals v White Sox ...Nats may not respond well to Riggo resignation. Dunn Reborn?
- FRIDAY Zimmerman with a 3.93 SIERA a bit over his head lately, the fly balls will eventually leave the park, and Chicago a decent spot for that to happen. White sox a respectable #8 in HRr as well as Guillen #. Jackson has a suprising 3.87 SIERA and getting burned by a brutal BABIP (does get ripped for line drives). White Sox and over are interesting.
- SATURDAY gorz was awful in his first start back from DL but 4.16 SIERA nonetheless. Danks inline with peripherals at a 4.35 SIERA. Nats are terrible against lefties, white sox pretty bad splits but at least league average against em. Looks like white sox again.
- SUNDAY livan with a 4.65 SIERA and wildly unpredictable, while humber keeps rolling along despite a 4.29 SIERA calling for a correction. Tough game to call, white sox will be expensive but Humber rolling.

Cubs v Royals ...i hope the Royals don't get swept.
- FRIDAY Bruce Chen returns from the DL after showing a 5.02 SIERA to begin the season. Dempster and his 3.67 SIERA remain one of the most underrated starters in the $heet. Cubs prefer lefties. So much $heet stank on this its scary, god help anyone handicapping this game on the starters W-L record and ERA.
- SATURDAY Duffy and zambrano both inline with peripherals, but zambrano slightly better and showing good velocity lately. Cubs get another lefty, oh those poor Royals.
- SUNDAY Both pitchers are terrible, for the children, please let the Royals win this game.

As v Phillies ...i fucking hate the Phillies for being this good.
- FRIDAY only five starts but a 6.63 SIERA for Moscoso is outrageous. Worley overrated with a 4.48 SIERA. Might be the beginning of a long weekend for Oakland but they did show some fight in New York. Over maybe worth a shot given teams’ low scoring games, but one team is likely to just not hit.
- SATURDAY cahill with a 4.05 SIERA overrated, and hamels one of the best pitchers in the $heet. As prefer lefties, but Hamels is the nuts.
- SUNDAY limited data but Outman SIERA over 5 so no chance for As here, Phils should be the biggest favorite of the weekend.

Red Sox v Pirates ...i hope the Pirates win this series, there is no chance though.
- FRIDAY been waiting for a Maholm correction as his 4.39 SIERA calls for it, but still rolling along. Lester with a 3.56 SIERA tough to go against, pirates brutal against lefties…would love to see Pirates get a Friday night home win over the beatup Papiless Red Sox squad but this looks tough to overcome.
- SATURDAY karstens another overachieving pirates starter with a 4 SIERA, going against wakefield though so still advantage for pitt. If they gonna win one this has to be it.
- SUNDAY mcdonald showing signs of life with a 4.8 SIERA in line with ERA. Miller was shaky in his first start but 3.68 SIERA a good sign. Tough to back pitt here but insane logic always relevant on the diamond.

Rays v Astros ...cA$tros?
- FRIDAY big game in the zone but wandy also very impressive since return from DL, SIERA still at 3.8 due to early struggles though. Rays even splits but Astros much prefer a righty, could be a good home dog and lean under.
- SATURDAY Stud Norris v Fade Davis? How big a dog will the Astros be? MIGHT be favored. Love em here.
- SUNDAY happ and his 4.57 SIERA underrated but has been throwing a ton of pitches and could be gassed. Niemann with a 4.7 SIERA is inline with peripherals but seem undervalued. Tough call, lean Rays.

Twins v Brewers ...no idea what the think of either of these teams right now.
- FRIDAY baker solid with a 3.25 SIERA while wolf a bit overrated at 4.2. Twins prefer lefties so as long as baker’s fly balls don’t leave the yard twins should be in this…bullpen terrifies me though….and brewers eat righties.
- SATURDAY Gallardo getting his act together as SIERA down to 3.8, same can be said for liriano lately but hasn’t shown the same improvement, SIERA still at 4.7. Brewers much worse against a left handers so under and twins interest me.
- SUNDAY Pavano and his 4.8 SIERA due to be gassed, Milwaukee a great place for it. Narveson underrated with a 3.89 SIERA, twins better against lefties but pitching advantage to strong. Brewers should roll.

Blue Jays v Cardinals ...neither team hitting, Cardinals offense not a big drop off without Pujols though.
- FRIDAY morrow with a 3.29 SIERA finally showed that potential last time out against the Natti. Westbrook underrated as well with a 4.25 SIERA. Both teams in a bit of a funk lately, Jays can’t hit at all. Under worth a shot til they prove otherwise, cardinals bullpen close to unbackable right now though.
- SATURDAY Garcia a stud at 3.18 SIERA but should you hide your lefties against the Jays? Didn’t touch em in Atlanta, but 0.84 OPS vs em is best in baseball. Villanueva due for a correction with a 4.15 SIERA so over actually may be the play.
- SUNDAY mcclellan with a 4.6 SIERA overrated but coming off two decent starts. Romero overrated himself at 3.9 SIERA, and just called his team out…cardinals drop off a bit against lefties so think blue jays are the play, romero overpriced though.

Angels v Dodgers ...get me tickets to Sunday's game...and tonights?
- FRIDAY haren mediocre lately but SIERA still at 3.27. love this de la rosa kid sporting a 3.98 SIERA through three starts, great velocity but a little wild. Angels offense not great by any means, value probably on Dodgers who have shown signs of life lately.
- SATURDAY still waiting for chatwood to be demoted, SIERA of 5.5 means a correction is coming. Kuroda overrated himself with SIERA at 3.98, but pitching advantage too strong for Dodgers here.
- SUNDAY weaver with a 3.4 SIERA surprisingly a bit overrated, not getting a ton of groundballs so $heet thinks BABIP will correct, but lame fly balls are just as good as groundballs so not so sure the $heet is right here. Kershaw a $heet stud now with a 2.97 SIERA, angels splits dead even, should be a great pitchers duel and Kershaw has the value, under looks too easy but should hit.

Mariners v Marlins ...this is in Washington, Marlins are at home. LOL. worst month ever.
- FRIDAY horrible trip for the Marlins to end a horrible month, maybe the worst of all time. King felix inline with peripherals at 3.4 SIERA, while nolasco slightly underrated with a 3.96 SIERA. Just looks like an awful spot for the marlins, mariners will be expensive though and had a long travel yesterday…bullpen also not very reliable lately.
- SATURDAY don’t like that the $heet is talking me into Chad Volstad, but the SIERA at 4.2 means he’s underrated. Vargas on the other hand with a 4.45 SIERA is due for a bad outing, marlins were showing some offense mid week and prefer lefties (over 0.700 OPS), maybe they get something here?
- SUNDAY fister and the 4.21 SIERA a bit overrated but looked lights out in his last start. Sanchez with his 3.14 SIERA a stud, so under probably a good look here, see if marlins are fighting for new coach this weekend though.

Indians v Giants ...both these teams might suck.
- FRIDAY carrasco with a 4.24 SIERA been on a roll lately, becoming a ‘hot’ pitcher but a bit over his head right now. Sanchez has not done well showing a 4.25 SIERA and overrated. Cleveland showing a bit of a drop off against lefties, interesting game, neither team lighting up the scoreboard lately, interested in the under but not with these unreliable pitchers.
- SATURDAY Masterson and his 3.97 SIERA a bit overrated but steady as then come lately. Cain at a 3.7 SIERA slightly overrated but pretty much inline. Tough game, to groundball or to flyball? Normally prefer groundballers.
- SUNDAY well bumgarners correction sure came fast, now slightly underrated with a 3.97 SIERA. Carmona with a 4.19 SIERA is underrated but he has been terrible and the scouting doesn’t sound much better. Giants might be too expensive, interested in under.

Braves v Padres ...this series sums up the national league this weekend, mediocre.
- FRIDAY Stauffer and his 3.47 SIERA actually performing better than Lowe at his 3.7. Padres called up these young guys and may not be as terrible as they’ve looked thusfar, the lineup isn’t as bad as the numbers suggest. Could be a great contrarian dog all weekend.
- SATURDAY JAIR! We meet again, the SIERA now at 4.34, when will the ERA get there? Tough to think the fly balls go out in Petco, but again, Padres have some pop back with Rizzo and Maybin. Moseley with a 4.6 SIERA overrated himself, insane logic over written all over this one.
- SUNDAY luebke decent peripherals as a reliever with a 3 SIERA, but entirely different ballgame here. Hudson with a 3.6 SIERA still chugging along, tough game to cap as luebke is a wildcard.

KEEP GAMING