Yes, 45 baseball game previews. Plays first.
FRIDAY
Snakes (and Over)
Cubs
SATURDAY
Reds/Os Over
Cubs
Astros
Dodgers
Marlins
SUNDAY
Tigers
Rockies
Rangers
Brewers
Dodgers (and Under)
VALUE ALL WEEKEND
Astros
Rockies
Padres
MONDAYs NEWS
- Chaos ensues after Padres, Astros, and Rockies pull improbable sweeps, and unfortunately the Pirates and Royals are still terrible.
THE REASON
Reds v Os... Os rebound and Reds are overrated?
- FRIDAY volquez underrated with a SIERA around 4, has been sharp since return from DL. Jakubaskas with a 4.5 SIERA through 3 starts so slightly underrated, can have problems with the HR ball. Reds power dropping, and team in a bit of a funk, seem overrated currently…also have a major drop off when facing a righty. Os have to be ready for this series after a brutal road trip, but have been playing awful so tough to get a read on, maybe a live dog all weekend but playing too poorly to back here.
- SATURDAY reds eat lefties so horrible spot for matusz, arroyo pretty inline with peripherals at a 4.5 SIERA. Over worth a look.
- SUNDAY bailey coming off DL but showed a solid 3.6 SIERA through 5 starts. Guthrie a bit overrated with a 4.4 SIERA, too many fly balls so victimized by the HR, again reds haven’t been hitting much power lately so not sure this is the weekend they turn it around, could drop 2 of 3 here.
Diamondbacks v Tigers ...Snakes for real? If they can hit Verlander.
- FRIDAY duke finally having problems and SIERA up to 4.25 through five starts, but coke very overrated with the 5.2 SIERA. Dbacks rolling, both teams can get to lefties but Snakes a clear $heet play.
- SATURDAY collmenter overrated with a 4.0 SIERA, doubt much value against verlander but not as close as people would even think
- SUNDAY Saunders with a 5.04 SIERA and overrated, while penny mostly in line with peripherals at 4.8. Tigers prefer lefties so think they win here.
Rockies v Yankees...Rockies FTS! (For the Sweep)
- FRIDAY ubaldo getting it together has brought SIERA down to about 4, still overpriced probably but definitely better than earlier this year. A.J. with a 4.14 SIERA not as bad as most would assume, interesting game, Yankees have to be favored but Rockies kinda coming alive, think they take this one.
- SATURDAY cook with a 4.95 SIERA through three starts this year, so about as bad as he looks. Sabathia a bit overrated with a 3.95 SIERA, rockies prefer lefties, if they keep hitting they can certainly overcome a 5 ER start from cook, so value on the Rocks this weekend.
- SUNDAY keep reading good scouting writeups on nicasio, still haven’t seen him though, SIERA at 3.77 makes me believe though, but only five starts. Nova with a 4.56 SIERA goes between great performance and terrible one, caught the Reds at a good time, think he goes down here. Yes, Rockies too sweep and turn their season around, still underrated per 3rd order winning % on bp (Pythagorean)
Mets v Rangers ...Rangers pitchers aren't as good as they look.
- FRIDAY pelfrey as bad as he looks with the 4.67 SIERA, but Harrison with the 4.82 SIERA is very overrated. Unfortunately mets are brutal against lefties, so tough to make a case for them here, certainly have value as Harrison overpriced.
- SATURDAY ogando and his 3.99 SIERA still has a way to go, so correction only beginning. Niese inline with peripherals at 3.8, texas has decent splits, slightly prefer rightes though, so mets will have value again as texas starters overrated.
- SUNDAY Holland underrated with his 4.17 SIERA and mets can’t hit lefties, gee overpriced and public sporting a 4.4 SIERA great spot to get the Rangers on the low.
Nationals v White Sox ...Nats may not respond well to Riggo resignation. Dunn Reborn?
- FRIDAY Zimmerman with a 3.93 SIERA a bit over his head lately, the fly balls will eventually leave the park, and Chicago a decent spot for that to happen. White sox a respectable #8 in HRr as well as Guillen #. Jackson has a suprising 3.87 SIERA and getting burned by a brutal BABIP (does get ripped for line drives). White Sox and over are interesting.
- SATURDAY gorz was awful in his first start back from DL but 4.16 SIERA nonetheless. Danks inline with peripherals at a 4.35 SIERA. Nats are terrible against lefties, white sox pretty bad splits but at least league average against em. Looks like white sox again.
- SUNDAY livan with a 4.65 SIERA and wildly unpredictable, while humber keeps rolling along despite a 4.29 SIERA calling for a correction. Tough game to call, white sox will be expensive but Humber rolling.
Cubs v Royals ...i hope the Royals don't get swept.
- FRIDAY Bruce Chen returns from the DL after showing a 5.02 SIERA to begin the season. Dempster and his 3.67 SIERA remain one of the most underrated starters in the $heet. Cubs prefer lefties. So much $heet stank on this its scary, god help anyone handicapping this game on the starters W-L record and ERA.
- SATURDAY Duffy and zambrano both inline with peripherals, but zambrano slightly better and showing good velocity lately. Cubs get another lefty, oh those poor Royals.
- SUNDAY Both pitchers are terrible, for the children, please let the Royals win this game.
As v Phillies ...i fucking hate the Phillies for being this good.
- FRIDAY only five starts but a 6.63 SIERA for Moscoso is outrageous. Worley overrated with a 4.48 SIERA. Might be the beginning of a long weekend for Oakland but they did show some fight in New York. Over maybe worth a shot given teams’ low scoring games, but one team is likely to just not hit.
- SATURDAY cahill with a 4.05 SIERA overrated, and hamels one of the best pitchers in the $heet. As prefer lefties, but Hamels is the nuts.
- SUNDAY limited data but Outman SIERA over 5 so no chance for As here, Phils should be the biggest favorite of the weekend.
Red Sox v Pirates ...i hope the Pirates win this series, there is no chance though.
- FRIDAY been waiting for a Maholm correction as his 4.39 SIERA calls for it, but still rolling along. Lester with a 3.56 SIERA tough to go against, pirates brutal against lefties…would love to see Pirates get a Friday night home win over the beatup Papiless Red Sox squad but this looks tough to overcome.
- SATURDAY karstens another overachieving pirates starter with a 4 SIERA, going against wakefield though so still advantage for pitt. If they gonna win one this has to be it.
- SUNDAY mcdonald showing signs of life with a 4.8 SIERA in line with ERA. Miller was shaky in his first start but 3.68 SIERA a good sign. Tough to back pitt here but insane logic always relevant on the diamond.
Rays v Astros ...cA$tros?
- FRIDAY big game in the zone but wandy also very impressive since return from DL, SIERA still at 3.8 due to early struggles though. Rays even splits but Astros much prefer a righty, could be a good home dog and lean under.
- SATURDAY Stud Norris v Fade Davis? How big a dog will the Astros be? MIGHT be favored. Love em here.
- SUNDAY happ and his 4.57 SIERA underrated but has been throwing a ton of pitches and could be gassed. Niemann with a 4.7 SIERA is inline with peripherals but seem undervalued. Tough call, lean Rays.
Twins v Brewers ...no idea what the think of either of these teams right now.
- FRIDAY baker solid with a 3.25 SIERA while wolf a bit overrated at 4.2. Twins prefer lefties so as long as baker’s fly balls don’t leave the yard twins should be in this…bullpen terrifies me though….and brewers eat righties.
- SATURDAY Gallardo getting his act together as SIERA down to 3.8, same can be said for liriano lately but hasn’t shown the same improvement, SIERA still at 4.7. Brewers much worse against a left handers so under and twins interest me.
- SUNDAY Pavano and his 4.8 SIERA due to be gassed, Milwaukee a great place for it. Narveson underrated with a 3.89 SIERA, twins better against lefties but pitching advantage to strong. Brewers should roll.
Blue Jays v Cardinals ...neither team hitting, Cardinals offense not a big drop off without Pujols though.
- FRIDAY morrow with a 3.29 SIERA finally showed that potential last time out against the Natti. Westbrook underrated as well with a 4.25 SIERA. Both teams in a bit of a funk lately, Jays can’t hit at all. Under worth a shot til they prove otherwise, cardinals bullpen close to unbackable right now though.
- SATURDAY Garcia a stud at 3.18 SIERA but should you hide your lefties against the Jays? Didn’t touch em in Atlanta, but 0.84 OPS vs em is best in baseball. Villanueva due for a correction with a 4.15 SIERA so over actually may be the play.
- SUNDAY mcclellan with a 4.6 SIERA overrated but coming off two decent starts. Romero overrated himself at 3.9 SIERA, and just called his team out…cardinals drop off a bit against lefties so think blue jays are the play, romero overpriced though.
Angels v Dodgers ...get me tickets to Sunday's game...and tonights?
- FRIDAY haren mediocre lately but SIERA still at 3.27. love this de la rosa kid sporting a 3.98 SIERA through three starts, great velocity but a little wild. Angels offense not great by any means, value probably on Dodgers who have shown signs of life lately.
- SATURDAY still waiting for chatwood to be demoted, SIERA of 5.5 means a correction is coming. Kuroda overrated himself with SIERA at 3.98, but pitching advantage too strong for Dodgers here.
- SUNDAY weaver with a 3.4 SIERA surprisingly a bit overrated, not getting a ton of groundballs so $heet thinks BABIP will correct, but lame fly balls are just as good as groundballs so not so sure the $heet is right here. Kershaw a $heet stud now with a 2.97 SIERA, angels splits dead even, should be a great pitchers duel and Kershaw has the value, under looks too easy but should hit.
Mariners v Marlins ...this is in Washington, Marlins are at home. LOL. worst month ever.
- FRIDAY horrible trip for the Marlins to end a horrible month, maybe the worst of all time. King felix inline with peripherals at 3.4 SIERA, while nolasco slightly underrated with a 3.96 SIERA. Just looks like an awful spot for the marlins, mariners will be expensive though and had a long travel yesterday…bullpen also not very reliable lately.
- SATURDAY don’t like that the $heet is talking me into Chad Volstad, but the SIERA at 4.2 means he’s underrated. Vargas on the other hand with a 4.45 SIERA is due for a bad outing, marlins were showing some offense mid week and prefer lefties (over 0.700 OPS), maybe they get something here?
- SUNDAY fister and the 4.21 SIERA a bit overrated but looked lights out in his last start. Sanchez with his 3.14 SIERA a stud, so under probably a good look here, see if marlins are fighting for new coach this weekend though.
Indians v Giants ...both these teams might suck.
- FRIDAY carrasco with a 4.24 SIERA been on a roll lately, becoming a ‘hot’ pitcher but a bit over his head right now. Sanchez has not done well showing a 4.25 SIERA and overrated. Cleveland showing a bit of a drop off against lefties, interesting game, neither team lighting up the scoreboard lately, interested in the under but not with these unreliable pitchers.
- SATURDAY Masterson and his 3.97 SIERA a bit overrated but steady as then come lately. Cain at a 3.7 SIERA slightly overrated but pretty much inline. Tough game, to groundball or to flyball? Normally prefer groundballers.
- SUNDAY well bumgarners correction sure came fast, now slightly underrated with a 3.97 SIERA. Carmona with a 4.19 SIERA is underrated but he has been terrible and the scouting doesn’t sound much better. Giants might be too expensive, interested in under.
Braves v Padres ...this series sums up the national league this weekend, mediocre.
- FRIDAY Stauffer and his 3.47 SIERA actually performing better than Lowe at his 3.7. Padres called up these young guys and may not be as terrible as they’ve looked thusfar, the lineup isn’t as bad as the numbers suggest. Could be a great contrarian dog all weekend.
- SATURDAY JAIR! We meet again, the SIERA now at 4.34, when will the ERA get there? Tough to think the fly balls go out in Petco, but again, Padres have some pop back with Rizzo and Maybin. Moseley with a 4.6 SIERA overrated himself, insane logic over written all over this one.
- SUNDAY luebke decent peripherals as a reliever with a 3 SIERA, but entirely different ballgame here. Hudson with a 3.6 SIERA still chugging along, tough game to cap as luebke is a wildcard.
KEEP GAMING
Friday, June 24, 2011
Friday, March 04, 2011
MARCH 5 LOOKAHEAD
Kansas @ Missouri PK
- Missouri at home should be popular upset but Kansas needs this to win Big 12 regular season, an accomplishment they always go for. Also #1 possibly in play. Don't think Missouri is very good this year, they could get some steals and go on a few runs, but Kansas has enough post offense to get easy buckets to limit them (Missouri 2pt FG defense #8 in big 12, #12 in def rebounding...they do not go hard in the paint). Would be suprised if Kansas was a dog. Missouri always worthy of respect at home but if favored and public think Kansas can steal a win, Missouri's best home win is against a defective Kansas St. Tough game though, lean Kansas. Kansas...probably.
Va Tech @ Clemson -2
- Hokies off a loss but don't care, Clemson is a great team that has been improving all year. Last home game, chance to nail a winning ACC season...hokies are underrated though but terrible spot having to play early Saturday in Clemson (Delaney called it his least favorite road trip last Saturday on Gameday). Clemson home court efficiency #2 in ACC to DUKE! I smell a beat down as Hokies wish ACC season ended last week. If Clemson small favorite (#1 ACC in FT%), POUND IT. Tigers!
Louisville @ West Virginia -4
- Mountaineers the best 3pt efG% defense in Big East. Louisville locked in double bye for Big East. This just looks too easy on paper, but after watching Mountaineers, they are too stupid sometimes for this to be easy. They should roll, but it could very well be an up and down affair. Strong lean to West Va. 'Eers.
Duqeunse @ Richmond -7
- Richmond should roll here but have not had a big win in a few weeks, including losing at home to Xavier. But Duquense really wearing down and Spiders don't turn it over. Last home game, just think the Spiders roll here. Spiders..probably.
Indiana @ Illinois -13
- Short rest for Hoosiers, this could get ugly. Meh.
Georgia State @ George Mason -11
- Layoff could cool Mason and can't recommend these big favorites opening the post season, won't wake up til 2nd half. Georgia State will be ready to go, have fought all season. Ga St...probably.
Georgia @ Alabama -6
- Tide should roll. They've locked up their side of the SEC but Grant will have them in top form to try to win a bid to the Big Dance. Georgia weaker on road and Tide 2nd most efficient home team in SEC. UGA literally does nothing well while 'Bama sports the #1 defense and eFG% in the SEC. ROLL TIDE!
UVA @ Maryland -8
- Oh my how I would NOT trust the Terps here. Its UVA or nothing. They are a good road dog and still fighting. Meh.
MIchigan St @ Michigan -2 O/U 124
- Spartans worst road team in Big 10. And its not really close. Wow this is amazing that Spartans would be underdogs here. No way I could trust them. Wolverines on the other hand are playing great and need a win to improve Big 10 seeding and keep at large bid hopes alive. Still, Izzo always capable of waking the team up, lean under in what will be a physical do or die rivalry payback senior day atmosphere. Meh.
Notre Dame @ Uconn -3
- Irish not as horrible as years past on the road, but Uconn in must win mode with revenge in probably Kemba's last home game? Yikes. Still, if point spread too high, Notre Dame been underrated all season, most efficient offense in Big East (but #10 defense as well). So take points if there are too many. UConn...probably.
Georgetown @ Cincinatti -4
- Hoyas have had a week off to regroup without Wright, and should be ready to right the ship, but Cinci still underrated and great at home, could be tough for Hoyas to win without Wright. They are weaker on the road and the offense is too reliant on pull up 3s (ala Villanova). Cinci should win this, and probably cover. Meh.
Oregon @ Arizona -12
- Ducks falling apart down the stretch. A win gives Arizona sole Pac 10 chip. Should roll. Cats.
Drexel @ VCU -7
- Dragons are thin and played sloppy today. VCU should be ready to go after terrible end to season and being in the Coliseum. Weak on the boards so don't want to lay too many, but Drexel let Towson play with them and that is not a good sign, especially when your #292 in the country in bench minutes. Rams.
Creighton vs Missouri St -5
- Bears a bit overvalued right now, showed today. Creighton playing very well lately and could be dangerous here, have the #1 3pt eFG% in MVC and that is key against Missouri St. Creighton has enough options on offense to close a gap if down early/late. Blue Jays.
Oregon St @ Arizona St -6
- Don't want it with Snedek's Devils right now. Team has turned a corner and plays MUCH better at home. Devils.
UNC Asheville @ Coastal Carolina -6
- Asheville kinda rolling and will have confidence playing on road where they recently won. But if spread is too low, Chanticleers are very determined to make the Dance despite adversity and have the best player on the court. Meh.
UCLA @ Washington St -2
- Love it that Kyle is out for rollin with weed, as team will rally round it for senior night in a big game. Guys like Motem and Moore can step up here. On the other hand, UCLA will be everybody's favorite, maybe the most public play of the day. However, second leg of worst road trip in Pac 10 with a limited bench and may have peaked on Thursday (and come up short)...just don't like this spot for young Bruins. COUGARS!
Villanova @ Pitt -10
- Just don't see how Nova survives this game. Horrible spot for a team on a wretched downward spiral. Pitt...probably.
Florida @ Vanderbilt -4
- Love the 'Dores. Florida has their side of the SEC locked up and Vanderbilt would love a revenge win on senior day with a chance to improve seeding in up coming tournament. DORES...as long as they aren't laying too many.
Marquette @ Seton Hall Pk
- Pirates have confidence after win over Red Storm but Marquette needs a win and this team isn't dead by any means. Think that Marquette wins late against undisciplined chaotic Seton Hall who fouls too much and can't possibly win two at home in a row. EAGLES!
Stanford @ California -7
- Bears should be amp'd for the Big Game and have an improving squad. WOODSHEED ALERTY! ROLL ON YOU BEARS!
Rutgers @ Providence -5
- Can't tell you how much I love the Scarlet Knights this year. Should cover, maybe even win, team has improved this year.
Dook @ North Carolina -1
- Have to imagine UNC is a slight favorite given the tear they are on. ACC championship on the line, should be a fantastic game. Duke however is so strong on the road, in efficiency measures they have been as strong on the road in ACC play as UNC has been at home. As much as I hate it I think the veteran team comes in and gets a big win in their final ACC game, especially after the Virginia Tech wake up in a similar spot. DOOK!
Texas @ Baylor +3
- Don't think I can back Baylor even as a home dog in a must win, and at 3 the goons will be calling this a trap line. They just play too sloppy (#1 in Turnovers..IN THE NATION) and will have a brutal time against this Texas D coming off a few lame performances lacking intensity...just think this Texas team is different than the ones that have collapsed last few years. Think Texas rolls. HOOK EM.
KEEP WINNING!
- Missouri at home should be popular upset but Kansas needs this to win Big 12 regular season, an accomplishment they always go for. Also #1 possibly in play. Don't think Missouri is very good this year, they could get some steals and go on a few runs, but Kansas has enough post offense to get easy buckets to limit them (Missouri 2pt FG defense #8 in big 12, #12 in def rebounding...they do not go hard in the paint). Would be suprised if Kansas was a dog. Missouri always worthy of respect at home but if favored and public think Kansas can steal a win, Missouri's best home win is against a defective Kansas St. Tough game though, lean Kansas. Kansas...probably.
Va Tech @ Clemson -2
- Hokies off a loss but don't care, Clemson is a great team that has been improving all year. Last home game, chance to nail a winning ACC season...hokies are underrated though but terrible spot having to play early Saturday in Clemson (Delaney called it his least favorite road trip last Saturday on Gameday). Clemson home court efficiency #2 in ACC to DUKE! I smell a beat down as Hokies wish ACC season ended last week. If Clemson small favorite (#1 ACC in FT%), POUND IT. Tigers!
Louisville @ West Virginia -4
- Mountaineers the best 3pt efG% defense in Big East. Louisville locked in double bye for Big East. This just looks too easy on paper, but after watching Mountaineers, they are too stupid sometimes for this to be easy. They should roll, but it could very well be an up and down affair. Strong lean to West Va. 'Eers.
Duqeunse @ Richmond -7
- Richmond should roll here but have not had a big win in a few weeks, including losing at home to Xavier. But Duquense really wearing down and Spiders don't turn it over. Last home game, just think the Spiders roll here. Spiders..probably.
Indiana @ Illinois -13
- Short rest for Hoosiers, this could get ugly. Meh.
Georgia State @ George Mason -11
- Layoff could cool Mason and can't recommend these big favorites opening the post season, won't wake up til 2nd half. Georgia State will be ready to go, have fought all season. Ga St...probably.
Georgia @ Alabama -6
- Tide should roll. They've locked up their side of the SEC but Grant will have them in top form to try to win a bid to the Big Dance. Georgia weaker on road and Tide 2nd most efficient home team in SEC. UGA literally does nothing well while 'Bama sports the #1 defense and eFG% in the SEC. ROLL TIDE!
UVA @ Maryland -8
- Oh my how I would NOT trust the Terps here. Its UVA or nothing. They are a good road dog and still fighting. Meh.
MIchigan St @ Michigan -2 O/U 124
- Spartans worst road team in Big 10. And its not really close. Wow this is amazing that Spartans would be underdogs here. No way I could trust them. Wolverines on the other hand are playing great and need a win to improve Big 10 seeding and keep at large bid hopes alive. Still, Izzo always capable of waking the team up, lean under in what will be a physical do or die rivalry payback senior day atmosphere. Meh.
Notre Dame @ Uconn -3
- Irish not as horrible as years past on the road, but Uconn in must win mode with revenge in probably Kemba's last home game? Yikes. Still, if point spread too high, Notre Dame been underrated all season, most efficient offense in Big East (but #10 defense as well). So take points if there are too many. UConn...probably.
Georgetown @ Cincinatti -4
- Hoyas have had a week off to regroup without Wright, and should be ready to right the ship, but Cinci still underrated and great at home, could be tough for Hoyas to win without Wright. They are weaker on the road and the offense is too reliant on pull up 3s (ala Villanova). Cinci should win this, and probably cover. Meh.
Oregon @ Arizona -12
- Ducks falling apart down the stretch. A win gives Arizona sole Pac 10 chip. Should roll. Cats.
Drexel @ VCU -7
- Dragons are thin and played sloppy today. VCU should be ready to go after terrible end to season and being in the Coliseum. Weak on the boards so don't want to lay too many, but Drexel let Towson play with them and that is not a good sign, especially when your #292 in the country in bench minutes. Rams.
Creighton vs Missouri St -5
- Bears a bit overvalued right now, showed today. Creighton playing very well lately and could be dangerous here, have the #1 3pt eFG% in MVC and that is key against Missouri St. Creighton has enough options on offense to close a gap if down early/late. Blue Jays.
Oregon St @ Arizona St -6
- Don't want it with Snedek's Devils right now. Team has turned a corner and plays MUCH better at home. Devils.
UNC Asheville @ Coastal Carolina -6
- Asheville kinda rolling and will have confidence playing on road where they recently won. But if spread is too low, Chanticleers are very determined to make the Dance despite adversity and have the best player on the court. Meh.
UCLA @ Washington St -2
- Love it that Kyle is out for rollin with weed, as team will rally round it for senior night in a big game. Guys like Motem and Moore can step up here. On the other hand, UCLA will be everybody's favorite, maybe the most public play of the day. However, second leg of worst road trip in Pac 10 with a limited bench and may have peaked on Thursday (and come up short)...just don't like this spot for young Bruins. COUGARS!
Villanova @ Pitt -10
- Just don't see how Nova survives this game. Horrible spot for a team on a wretched downward spiral. Pitt...probably.
Florida @ Vanderbilt -4
- Love the 'Dores. Florida has their side of the SEC locked up and Vanderbilt would love a revenge win on senior day with a chance to improve seeding in up coming tournament. DORES...as long as they aren't laying too many.
Marquette @ Seton Hall Pk
- Pirates have confidence after win over Red Storm but Marquette needs a win and this team isn't dead by any means. Think that Marquette wins late against undisciplined chaotic Seton Hall who fouls too much and can't possibly win two at home in a row. EAGLES!
Stanford @ California -7
- Bears should be amp'd for the Big Game and have an improving squad. WOODSHEED ALERTY! ROLL ON YOU BEARS!
Rutgers @ Providence -5
- Can't tell you how much I love the Scarlet Knights this year. Should cover, maybe even win, team has improved this year.
Dook @ North Carolina -1
- Have to imagine UNC is a slight favorite given the tear they are on. ACC championship on the line, should be a fantastic game. Duke however is so strong on the road, in efficiency measures they have been as strong on the road in ACC play as UNC has been at home. As much as I hate it I think the veteran team comes in and gets a big win in their final ACC game, especially after the Virginia Tech wake up in a similar spot. DOOK!
Texas @ Baylor +3
- Don't think I can back Baylor even as a home dog in a must win, and at 3 the goons will be calling this a trap line. They just play too sloppy (#1 in Turnovers..IN THE NATION) and will have a brutal time against this Texas D coming off a few lame performances lacking intensity...just think this Texas team is different than the ones that have collapsed last few years. Think Texas rolls. HOOK EM.
KEEP WINNING!
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
MARCH 2nd
5-7 (0-2 Large)
KEEP WINNING
Michigan St -11
Louisville -13.5
Florida St +2.5
ECU -1
Maryland -1
West Virginia -5 *LARGE*
Cincinatti +5.5
Colorado St -9.5
New Mexico +11
Utah St -7
Clemson +12
KEEP WINNING
Michigan St -11
Louisville -13.5
Florida St +2.5
ECU -1
Maryland -1
West Virginia -5 *LARGE*
Cincinatti +5.5
Colorado St -9.5
New Mexico +11
Utah St -7
Clemson +12
Tuesday, March 01, 2011
MARCH 1st
LET THE MADNESS ENSUE! Some pretty nice dogs tonight, and as we saw with Kansas St last night, teams playing better ball the past week tend to keep heating up. Not sure that helps make the case for Illinois @ Purdue, but that team has potential and I just can't get off them. Will keep track from here on out as we close the season.
Va Tech -9 and Ove 136: most expect a Hokie letdown, but I don't see it for this group on senior night against a BC team that already beat them. Hokies offense CLICKING and BC has hands down the worst defense in the ACC, Jackson always capable of taking a game over for the Eagles, but think BC wears down and melts in second half.
Okie St -2: hopefully they keep the momentum going in a sandwich spot for baylor. okie st #2 in big 12 in steals so like their chances to get enough turnovers and transition buckets to win.
Missouri +1.5: just don't see how nebraska has any left in the tank after two tough late collapses. missouri press should wear them down.
Wisconsin Green Bay +5.5: not enough separating these teams to justify laying more than a couple buckets. should go down to the wire.
UVA -1.5: beating a defeated yellow jacket team not enought to convince me sidney lowe has rallied his troops. wahoos in home finale should take a win simply because they are better coached.
Alabama +6 *LARGE* and Under 127: Florida typically enjoys a significant paint advantage, but not in this matchup. the Tide control the paint and as long as they don't foul (florida average in drawing fouls) i like them to get their first marquee win. game should play very similar to florida v florida st earlier this season.
Illinois +9.5: quick turnaround for purdue (who i love) but don't see them having an easy game against desperate illinois. Illini have great FG defense just can't get a turnover for the life of them. certainly have the height to contain JJ.
Penn St +6.5 *LARGE*: have to take the home dog in the biggest game in nittany lion hoops history. they don't turn the ball over and can turn this into a grinder and make ohio st have to win ugly.
Vandy +8 and Over 147: two best offenses in the SEC. sucker line but Vandy has been solid ATS on the road and kentucky coming off their typical bounceback win over the weekend. vandy just has major perimiter advantage and i'd rather go to war with ezili than anybody else on uk. would love to see coach cal blow the wildcats home streak.
Don't let the ML Scare you!
KEEP WINNING
Va Tech -9 and Ove 136: most expect a Hokie letdown, but I don't see it for this group on senior night against a BC team that already beat them. Hokies offense CLICKING and BC has hands down the worst defense in the ACC, Jackson always capable of taking a game over for the Eagles, but think BC wears down and melts in second half.
Okie St -2: hopefully they keep the momentum going in a sandwich spot for baylor. okie st #2 in big 12 in steals so like their chances to get enough turnovers and transition buckets to win.
Missouri +1.5: just don't see how nebraska has any left in the tank after two tough late collapses. missouri press should wear them down.
Wisconsin Green Bay +5.5: not enough separating these teams to justify laying more than a couple buckets. should go down to the wire.
UVA -1.5: beating a defeated yellow jacket team not enought to convince me sidney lowe has rallied his troops. wahoos in home finale should take a win simply because they are better coached.
Alabama +6 *LARGE* and Under 127: Florida typically enjoys a significant paint advantage, but not in this matchup. the Tide control the paint and as long as they don't foul (florida average in drawing fouls) i like them to get their first marquee win. game should play very similar to florida v florida st earlier this season.
Illinois +9.5: quick turnaround for purdue (who i love) but don't see them having an easy game against desperate illinois. Illini have great FG defense just can't get a turnover for the life of them. certainly have the height to contain JJ.
Penn St +6.5 *LARGE*: have to take the home dog in the biggest game in nittany lion hoops history. they don't turn the ball over and can turn this into a grinder and make ohio st have to win ugly.
Vandy +8 and Over 147: two best offenses in the SEC. sucker line but Vandy has been solid ATS on the road and kentucky coming off their typical bounceback win over the weekend. vandy just has major perimiter advantage and i'd rather go to war with ezili than anybody else on uk. would love to see coach cal blow the wildcats home streak.
Don't let the ML Scare you!
KEEP WINNING
Friday, February 25, 2011
Saturday Lookahead TASTE THE MADNESS
BC @ UVA -2
Eagles have hit the wall on offense, which is a bad sign when the defense is so bad. UVA has the shooters to expose that, but BC playing with back against the wall will be motivated. Should be a 3-fest so over could have value if in the 120s.
JMU @ VCU -6
Dukes ran into the ODU buzzsaw last night and looked a bit deflated. VCU has locked up the 4th seed in the CAA tournament but will want to avoid dropping 3 straight conference games at home. Also senior day, Rams should win big.
Missouri @ Kansas St -6
Ride the Wildcats. Team is on a roll right now and Missouri is awful on the road. Wildcats have trouble with turnovers but should be much better with the ball at home in a must-win for them to seal a bid to the Dance. Missouri awful on the boards as well.
Syracuse @ Georgetown -2
Hoyas know how to attack the zone but with Wright out and the Orange being in revenge mode as well as playing better on the road, have to think they are ripe to pull the upset in this one. Confidence is high after win at Villanova. Winner has good shot at a double bye for Big East tournament so a lot at stake.
Wichita St @ Missouri St -2
First place in the MVC on the line. Shockers limping to the finish after two unimpressive home performances, but 8-0 on the road in MVC play and a chance to take control of the league…they are the better team in PPP and I think we have another good road dog.
Milwaukee @ Youngstown St +7
Wisco Milwaukee has a chance to win the Horizon, that was unheard of a few weeks ago. But a win and homecourt for the tournament and a #1 seed is theirs. This team is really coming together and while I’d use caution going into this spot, if the spread is under 10 you have to like Milwaukee to get it done.
BYU @ San Diego St -3
Aztecs just too good at home to not take here. BYU no slouch on the road themselves, but Jimmer has been wearing down. Winner gets first place in the MWC, expect a raucous crowd.
St Johns @ Nova -5
Nova in danger of dropping out of top 8 in big east and missing first round bye. Must win spot in last home game, st johns magic has to wear off at some point.
Miami @ Florida St -6
Not giving up on the Hurricanes just yet, Singleton still out for Seminoles and Canes could use a big win here to keep post season hopes alive. Florida St has trouble extending margins lately and with a mediocre offense I don’t like their chances to take this one by double digits.
Georgia Tech @ NC St -6
Good spot for the Wolfpack to pick up a win. Yellow Jackets a total mess right now.
Wofford @ Furman PK
Furman about as good a home dog as you can find. Wofford with revenge, but Furman a team full of seniors should be a good play as a home dog.
Delaware @ Hofstra -8
Jenkins last home game and Hofstra can still improve seeding for CAA with win, should be a blowout.
Memphis @ UTEP -1
Miners reeling a big but no better time to get it back in gear than a home date with Memphis. Memphis winning on the road lately, but most games too close for comfort. Look for UTEP to get the big win at home to get back in the CUSA chase.
Arizona @ UCLA -1
Big showdown at Pauley. Last home game for bruins but no seniors, but have not lost at home all year. While the Bruins have an impressive run going, still no signature win. This could provide that, but think value will be with underdog Arizona who is more than capable of winning this and locking up first place in the Pac 10.
Kansas @ Oklahoma +12
Sooners an fumes and not sure this is the spot to turn it around. Jayhawks probably anxious to get back on the road after debacle in Manhattan. Lay the points if anything.
Texas @ Colorado +10
Not ready to give up on the Buffs, who have the offensive efficiency to not melt under the Texas defense. Would take the points in what should be closer than most think.
Florida @ Kentucky -5
Quick turnaround for the Gators, and think this is very similar to when Kentucky had Tennekey at home a few weeks back. Bottom line is the Cats just roll at home so unless spread is much more inflated than this, lay the points.
Alabama @ Miss +2
Tide needs to keep rolling to keep bid alive, so not too afraid to lay small number on the road against Ole Miss who lost a lot of momentum after recent road trip.
William and Mary @ Old Dominion -16
Monarchs are the hottest team in college hoops and everybody is still late to the party. Will completely undress the Tribe on senior night with a chance to lock up the 2nd seed for the CAA tournament.
Michigan @ Minnesota -4
Absolute must win for the Gophers and just not sure Michigan can bounceback from the banked 3 that ended their Big Dance hopes. Gophers were too big and athletic in the last matchup and I don’t expect that to change here.
Cal @ Oregon St +3
Not sure why I’d stop riding the Bears, but I haven’t had a clean read on the Beavers all year. Cal is still the most dangerous team heading into the Pac 10 tourney.
Stanford @ Oregon -4
Ducks should take this one against a clearly rebuilding Cardinal.
George Mason @ Georgia St +10
Mason train finally derailed last night, and Georgia St hasn’t had a home game in two weeks so could be ready for maximum effort at home on senior night.
Miss St @ Tennessee -10
Can’t really trust either of these teams but Miss St has been a mess all year so lay the wood or stay away.
Colorado St @ Air Force +6
Rams desperate for a win after dropping two tough ones, should be a beat down.
Southern Miss @ UCF +2
South Carolina @ Georgia -8
Seton Hall @ Notre Dame -10
Arizona St @ USC -12
Duquense @ St Louis +6
Duke @ Va Tech +2
Love the Hokies here.
Texas A&M @ Baylor +2
Revenge for bubbling A&M.
Loyola Marymount @ USF -10
Boise St @ Nevada -3
Eagles have hit the wall on offense, which is a bad sign when the defense is so bad. UVA has the shooters to expose that, but BC playing with back against the wall will be motivated. Should be a 3-fest so over could have value if in the 120s.
JMU @ VCU -6
Dukes ran into the ODU buzzsaw last night and looked a bit deflated. VCU has locked up the 4th seed in the CAA tournament but will want to avoid dropping 3 straight conference games at home. Also senior day, Rams should win big.
Missouri @ Kansas St -6
Ride the Wildcats. Team is on a roll right now and Missouri is awful on the road. Wildcats have trouble with turnovers but should be much better with the ball at home in a must-win for them to seal a bid to the Dance. Missouri awful on the boards as well.
Syracuse @ Georgetown -2
Hoyas know how to attack the zone but with Wright out and the Orange being in revenge mode as well as playing better on the road, have to think they are ripe to pull the upset in this one. Confidence is high after win at Villanova. Winner has good shot at a double bye for Big East tournament so a lot at stake.
Wichita St @ Missouri St -2
First place in the MVC on the line. Shockers limping to the finish after two unimpressive home performances, but 8-0 on the road in MVC play and a chance to take control of the league…they are the better team in PPP and I think we have another good road dog.
Milwaukee @ Youngstown St +7
Wisco Milwaukee has a chance to win the Horizon, that was unheard of a few weeks ago. But a win and homecourt for the tournament and a #1 seed is theirs. This team is really coming together and while I’d use caution going into this spot, if the spread is under 10 you have to like Milwaukee to get it done.
BYU @ San Diego St -3
Aztecs just too good at home to not take here. BYU no slouch on the road themselves, but Jimmer has been wearing down. Winner gets first place in the MWC, expect a raucous crowd.
St Johns @ Nova -5
Nova in danger of dropping out of top 8 in big east and missing first round bye. Must win spot in last home game, st johns magic has to wear off at some point.
Miami @ Florida St -6
Not giving up on the Hurricanes just yet, Singleton still out for Seminoles and Canes could use a big win here to keep post season hopes alive. Florida St has trouble extending margins lately and with a mediocre offense I don’t like their chances to take this one by double digits.
Georgia Tech @ NC St -6
Good spot for the Wolfpack to pick up a win. Yellow Jackets a total mess right now.
Wofford @ Furman PK
Furman about as good a home dog as you can find. Wofford with revenge, but Furman a team full of seniors should be a good play as a home dog.
Delaware @ Hofstra -8
Jenkins last home game and Hofstra can still improve seeding for CAA with win, should be a blowout.
Memphis @ UTEP -1
Miners reeling a big but no better time to get it back in gear than a home date with Memphis. Memphis winning on the road lately, but most games too close for comfort. Look for UTEP to get the big win at home to get back in the CUSA chase.
Arizona @ UCLA -1
Big showdown at Pauley. Last home game for bruins but no seniors, but have not lost at home all year. While the Bruins have an impressive run going, still no signature win. This could provide that, but think value will be with underdog Arizona who is more than capable of winning this and locking up first place in the Pac 10.
Kansas @ Oklahoma +12
Sooners an fumes and not sure this is the spot to turn it around. Jayhawks probably anxious to get back on the road after debacle in Manhattan. Lay the points if anything.
Texas @ Colorado +10
Not ready to give up on the Buffs, who have the offensive efficiency to not melt under the Texas defense. Would take the points in what should be closer than most think.
Florida @ Kentucky -5
Quick turnaround for the Gators, and think this is very similar to when Kentucky had Tennekey at home a few weeks back. Bottom line is the Cats just roll at home so unless spread is much more inflated than this, lay the points.
Alabama @ Miss +2
Tide needs to keep rolling to keep bid alive, so not too afraid to lay small number on the road against Ole Miss who lost a lot of momentum after recent road trip.
William and Mary @ Old Dominion -16
Monarchs are the hottest team in college hoops and everybody is still late to the party. Will completely undress the Tribe on senior night with a chance to lock up the 2nd seed for the CAA tournament.
Michigan @ Minnesota -4
Absolute must win for the Gophers and just not sure Michigan can bounceback from the banked 3 that ended their Big Dance hopes. Gophers were too big and athletic in the last matchup and I don’t expect that to change here.
Cal @ Oregon St +3
Not sure why I’d stop riding the Bears, but I haven’t had a clean read on the Beavers all year. Cal is still the most dangerous team heading into the Pac 10 tourney.
Stanford @ Oregon -4
Ducks should take this one against a clearly rebuilding Cardinal.
George Mason @ Georgia St +10
Mason train finally derailed last night, and Georgia St hasn’t had a home game in two weeks so could be ready for maximum effort at home on senior night.
Miss St @ Tennessee -10
Can’t really trust either of these teams but Miss St has been a mess all year so lay the wood or stay away.
Colorado St @ Air Force +6
Rams desperate for a win after dropping two tough ones, should be a beat down.
Southern Miss @ UCF +2
South Carolina @ Georgia -8
Seton Hall @ Notre Dame -10
Arizona St @ USC -12
Duquense @ St Louis +6
Duke @ Va Tech +2
Love the Hokies here.
Texas A&M @ Baylor +2
Revenge for bubbling A&M.
Loyola Marymount @ USF -10
Boise St @ Nevada -3
Friday, February 11, 2011
Saturday 2.12.11 Look Ahead
Syracuse @ Louisville -3
- Cards not impressive as home chalk (7-6 ATS) and should be in for a dog fight with Cuse off a loss. Orange have large advantage inside so if not turning it over and nobody on Louisville goes bonkers from 3 they should be in this to the end. If total at or above 140 look under.
- Looking to play Syracuse
St Louis @ Richmond -9 O/U 123
- St Louis been playing better of late after rough A10 start, and give up the least amount of 3 point shots in college hoops (also 24th in least amount of Assists allowed). Spiders offense prefers to swing around and shoot the 3 instead of attacking hoop one-on-one so looking under as long as total isn’t at 120. Richmond 3-6 as home chalk so don’t want to lay big points in what will be a grinder of a basketball game.
- Looking to play St Louis and Under
Notre Dame -8 @ South Florida
- Irish hit the road again, where they were successful last trip (upset @ pitt and cover @ depaul). Second time this season Notre Dame will be road chalk and think this may be a letdown spot with the early tip. Cuse needed every win they can get in their route last Saturday in the same spot, but Irish appeared to take foot off the pedal. Also, in my opinion, most overrated team in college hoops. Expect the Bulls athleticism to give the Irish offense problems.
- Looking to play South Florida
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt E O/U 145
- Kentucky could very well be favored here. That wouldn’t surprise me given the results of each team’s last two games. Vandy survived the upset bid of the hottest team in the SEC, and that was great preparation for Kentucky. Wildcats still don’t have solid road win in SEC, and expect a raucous Memorial gym similar to Thursday night’s which really pushed the home team over the edge. Vanderbilt mediocre 4-5 as home fave but won’t be laying much, if any, here. Kentucky lacks inside scorer and doing damage from outside tough against Vandy defense (7th in eFG% D from 3P). Just have to hope Vandy keeps em off the boards. Pace will be wild but could be value in under with Kentucky’s offense likely to be ineffective (avg 7 pts less on road and 3 pt problems).
- Looking to play Under and Vanderbilt
North Carolina -2 @ Clemson O/U 138
- Tough game. Both these teams are tough as nails right now and have shown the greatest improvement this season. Value will line with homedog Clemson who have figured out new coach’s defensive scheme and have enough perimeter weapons to avoid long scoring droughts…which is what I’m looking for here as Stitt and Young will need to hit 3s to beat a TOUGH UNC 2pt defense. Clemson will keep the pace slow (and have more success at home than @ Chapel Hill) and both defenses are top notch so under should be worth a look in what will be a close defensive battle. Clemson 9-1 at home and yet to be home dog.
- Looking to play Clemson and Under
Maryland @ BC Pk O/U 148
- Great payback spot for road warrior Terps (5-1 ATS on road). BC was peaking when they met earlier, and right now on a slide. Expect Gary to have em ready for an up and down shootout (total may be too high)
- Looking to play Maryland and Over (total may be too high/square)
Temple @ Dayton Pk O/U 133
- In terms of PPP, Dayton is a class below the top 4 A10 teams, but at home they are always dangerous, so don’t think Temple will be laying much, if any. Temple 4-1 ATS as road chalk so not afraid to lay points. Game should be slow and defensive, so like under better than either side.
- Looking to play Under
Oklahoma @ Missouri -14
- Oklahoma turns it over way too much to have any success here. Missouri should be salty after Kansas beatdown and get back to defense. Should win by 20+.
Texas A&M -10 @ Texas Tech
- Tech horrible at protecting offensive glass. A&M needs all the Big 12 wins they can get after minislump. Should be another beatdown, maybe tease Missouri and A&M.
Ohio St @ Wisconsin Pk O/U 126
- Wisconsin 6-2 as road chalk. Wisconsin 9-0 at home under Bo. Its almost becoming a public play, but in Big 10 PPP Wisconsin is the better team, and if you only take Wisconsin home numbers that inflates significantly. Badgers should roll to a double digit victory, as I really don’t see Sullinger and Lauderdale having any chance of stopping Leur and Nankivil outside. Ohio St defense not fantastic, especially if not forcing turnovers, so looking over, as game should see points on nearly every possession, with Wisconsin having more due to turnover advantage.
- Looking to play Wiscy and Over
ODU @ VCU -6
- Payback for ODU in this big CAA rivalry. Don’t think VCU can keep the Monarchs off the boards in this one, and this will be the Rams’ toughest home game to date, and only 3-7 as home chalk this year. ODU can get beat from 3 but VCU not hitting them as expected.
- Looking to play ODU
UVA @ Florida St -9 O/U 120
- Looking to play any under above 120 as this will be ugly, and UVA catching too many points (5-1 ATS as road dog)
Baylor @ Texas -10
- Would never advise going against Texas, but they didn’t cover as home chalk against Tech and at some point will be overvalued. Baylor needs a big win and will bring their A-game, if they don’t turn it over this could go to the wire.
Oregon St @ UCLA -14
- Beavers have been awful on the road, not sure it gets any better against rising Bruins. UCLA can have problems with TOs so might be too big a number.
Indiana @ Michigan -4 O/U 130
- No stopping the hot Wolverines. Indiana really hurt by rash of injuries so would love anything under 5 pts with Michigan, who is 5-2 as home chalk. Neither team plays much defense so over worth a look as well if in the 120s.
- Looking to play Michigan and Over
Ole Miss @ Alabama -7
- Can’t get me off the Tide right now. Should be hungry after tough late loss to Vandy. Ole Miss playing well of late due (and 6-1 on road ATS) to awful SEC competition, so step up in class here could provide value for Tide, who are 6-1 as home chalk.
- Looking to play Bama
UNCW -2 @ Towson
- Last chance for a CAA win for Towson? Probably. But just don’t see them putting it together against a well coached and improving Seahawk squad finding a good 2nd optioin in Trevor Deloach to go along with Tomko. Should be surprisingly high scoring. Towson will give it all so don’t lay too many.
- Looking to play UNCW (not laying too many) and Over.
Georgia -2 @ South Carolina
- Bulldogs providing more value on the road (5-0 ATS) but still haven’t put it all together, as they have the pieces to be great. Georgia needs all the SEC wins it can get while Cack may be thinking about next season.
- Looking to play Georgia at a low price
Marshall @ ECU Pk
- Pirates improving rapidly but stepping up in competition again. Herd a frustrating team this season, have the potential to be great. Marshall can defend the 3 and should get to the line easier than ECU, so like them in this matchup. Herd also 6-3 ATS as road dog.
- Looking to play Marshall if not laying points
JMU @ Mason -8 O/U 142
- Wouldn’t advise betting against Mason at home, but JMU was the closest game they’ve had since early January. Look ahead spot for Mason as they have showdown in Richmond next week, so at some point they will be overvalued. In most cases in CAA Mason just has too many D1 athletes, but JMU matches up well here, and can actually score (unlike ODU). Bowles had 21 pts, 14 board and 6 blocks last time they played. JMU 5-1 as road dog. Over also worth a shot.
- Looking to play JMU and Over
Tennessee @ Florida -5 O/U 131
- Volunteers a good road dog til last week, so interesting matchup here as Florida is one of the hottest teams in college hoops. However, Gators still only 2-8 ATS as home chalk, so if laying too many not afraid to take Tennessee who is about as unpredictable as any team in college hoops, and therefore more than capable of bouncing back to beat rival Gators. Payback spot as well for home loss. Would lean over but Florida has played very slow pace in SEC play.
- Looking to play Tennessee catching too many.
Southern Miss @ Memphis -4
- Tigers another up and down bunch, not sure what to expect here. Southern Miss can dominate the offensive glass and think they will be up for a big game. No major trends in ATS record for each team, lean Southern Miss due to PPP advantage.
- Looking to play Southern Miss catching too many
Cal @ Washington St -6
- Cougars coming off LAME duck performance at home against Stanford. Gonna go ahead and make this a no play, as I got wrecked on that game ATS and in a teaser. Honestly though, Cougars were 7-1 ATS at home and Cal was 5-1 ATS as road dog before last night. Tough one.
Seton Hall @ Rugers Pk
- Will they make my Scarlet Knights a home fave??! Confidence should be sky high for rapidly improving Rutgers, but beware if laying too many. Rutgers solid paint defense should handle horrible Pirate attack.
- Looking to play Rutgers as short fave.
Detroit @ Butler -12
- Payback spot and Butler is starting to roll into form again, even if Howard is out (the backups might be better!?!?)
San Diego St @ UNLV Pk O/U 130
- Aztecs and BYU in another league from rest of Mountain West, but UNLV always tough at home. Under looks like a solid option given UNLVs strong paint defense and the slow pace that the Aztecs prefer. UNLV has looked much improved since home debacle against Colorado St, so not afraid to play them as home dog.
- Looking to play UNLV as dog and Under
Stanford @ Washington -11
- Don’t see how Stanford can hang in here, even after big upset last night. Washington 8-3 as home chalk and Stanford still shaky on road, even with last night.
Pitt @ Villanova -2 O/U 143
- West Va soft this year (particularly on the boards). Villanova is not, and is in a must win game coming back home after brutal loss. Home crowd takes them to victory, Pitt will have to earn my respect. Over also worth a look as both teams has elite offenses and not as strong on defense.
- Looking to play Nova and Over
Kansas St @ Colorado -5
- Not sure I trust the Wildcats even in a revenge spot. Colorado is better in terms of PPP and off a home loss to a A&M team that was in must win mode. Kansas St 0-3 as road dog and don’t see them putting together a season ending run to save themselves.
- Looking to play Colorado
New Mexico @ Colorado St -3 O/U 142
- Don’t mind laying small number with Colorado St against surging New Mexico. Teams identical in terms of PPP so look for home edge to push the Rams over the top. Game should have good pace and features two strong offenses so over also worth a look if not too high in the 140s.
- Looking to play Colorado St at small number and Over
Wichita St -3 @ Northern Iowa
- Shockers 7-1 as road chalk this year and coming off horrible home loss, got to like them in this spot to keep at large bid alive, also revenge. Northern Iowa coming back to reality after hot start to MVC schedule. No Iowa yet to be a home dog but still not the same team as last year.
- Looking to play Shockers as small road fave
Oregon @ USC -7
- Trojans enjoying being back at Galen Center, and while Ducks showed some fight in Pauley last night, still don’t seem ready to take recent home success on the road. USC still has potential to make a late season run, and will take all the home wins they can get.
- Looking to play Trojans
St Mary’s -3 @ San Francisco
- You really don’t want it with the Dons right now! For first place in the WCC!
- Cards not impressive as home chalk (7-6 ATS) and should be in for a dog fight with Cuse off a loss. Orange have large advantage inside so if not turning it over and nobody on Louisville goes bonkers from 3 they should be in this to the end. If total at or above 140 look under.
- Looking to play Syracuse
St Louis @ Richmond -9 O/U 123
- St Louis been playing better of late after rough A10 start, and give up the least amount of 3 point shots in college hoops (also 24th in least amount of Assists allowed). Spiders offense prefers to swing around and shoot the 3 instead of attacking hoop one-on-one so looking under as long as total isn’t at 120. Richmond 3-6 as home chalk so don’t want to lay big points in what will be a grinder of a basketball game.
- Looking to play St Louis and Under
Notre Dame -8 @ South Florida
- Irish hit the road again, where they were successful last trip (upset @ pitt and cover @ depaul). Second time this season Notre Dame will be road chalk and think this may be a letdown spot with the early tip. Cuse needed every win they can get in their route last Saturday in the same spot, but Irish appeared to take foot off the pedal. Also, in my opinion, most overrated team in college hoops. Expect the Bulls athleticism to give the Irish offense problems.
- Looking to play South Florida
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt E O/U 145
- Kentucky could very well be favored here. That wouldn’t surprise me given the results of each team’s last two games. Vandy survived the upset bid of the hottest team in the SEC, and that was great preparation for Kentucky. Wildcats still don’t have solid road win in SEC, and expect a raucous Memorial gym similar to Thursday night’s which really pushed the home team over the edge. Vanderbilt mediocre 4-5 as home fave but won’t be laying much, if any, here. Kentucky lacks inside scorer and doing damage from outside tough against Vandy defense (7th in eFG% D from 3P). Just have to hope Vandy keeps em off the boards. Pace will be wild but could be value in under with Kentucky’s offense likely to be ineffective (avg 7 pts less on road and 3 pt problems).
- Looking to play Under and Vanderbilt
North Carolina -2 @ Clemson O/U 138
- Tough game. Both these teams are tough as nails right now and have shown the greatest improvement this season. Value will line with homedog Clemson who have figured out new coach’s defensive scheme and have enough perimeter weapons to avoid long scoring droughts…which is what I’m looking for here as Stitt and Young will need to hit 3s to beat a TOUGH UNC 2pt defense. Clemson will keep the pace slow (and have more success at home than @ Chapel Hill) and both defenses are top notch so under should be worth a look in what will be a close defensive battle. Clemson 9-1 at home and yet to be home dog.
- Looking to play Clemson and Under
Maryland @ BC Pk O/U 148
- Great payback spot for road warrior Terps (5-1 ATS on road). BC was peaking when they met earlier, and right now on a slide. Expect Gary to have em ready for an up and down shootout (total may be too high)
- Looking to play Maryland and Over (total may be too high/square)
Temple @ Dayton Pk O/U 133
- In terms of PPP, Dayton is a class below the top 4 A10 teams, but at home they are always dangerous, so don’t think Temple will be laying much, if any. Temple 4-1 ATS as road chalk so not afraid to lay points. Game should be slow and defensive, so like under better than either side.
- Looking to play Under
Oklahoma @ Missouri -14
- Oklahoma turns it over way too much to have any success here. Missouri should be salty after Kansas beatdown and get back to defense. Should win by 20+.
Texas A&M -10 @ Texas Tech
- Tech horrible at protecting offensive glass. A&M needs all the Big 12 wins they can get after minislump. Should be another beatdown, maybe tease Missouri and A&M.
Ohio St @ Wisconsin Pk O/U 126
- Wisconsin 6-2 as road chalk. Wisconsin 9-0 at home under Bo. Its almost becoming a public play, but in Big 10 PPP Wisconsin is the better team, and if you only take Wisconsin home numbers that inflates significantly. Badgers should roll to a double digit victory, as I really don’t see Sullinger and Lauderdale having any chance of stopping Leur and Nankivil outside. Ohio St defense not fantastic, especially if not forcing turnovers, so looking over, as game should see points on nearly every possession, with Wisconsin having more due to turnover advantage.
- Looking to play Wiscy and Over
ODU @ VCU -6
- Payback for ODU in this big CAA rivalry. Don’t think VCU can keep the Monarchs off the boards in this one, and this will be the Rams’ toughest home game to date, and only 3-7 as home chalk this year. ODU can get beat from 3 but VCU not hitting them as expected.
- Looking to play ODU
UVA @ Florida St -9 O/U 120
- Looking to play any under above 120 as this will be ugly, and UVA catching too many points (5-1 ATS as road dog)
Baylor @ Texas -10
- Would never advise going against Texas, but they didn’t cover as home chalk against Tech and at some point will be overvalued. Baylor needs a big win and will bring their A-game, if they don’t turn it over this could go to the wire.
Oregon St @ UCLA -14
- Beavers have been awful on the road, not sure it gets any better against rising Bruins. UCLA can have problems with TOs so might be too big a number.
Indiana @ Michigan -4 O/U 130
- No stopping the hot Wolverines. Indiana really hurt by rash of injuries so would love anything under 5 pts with Michigan, who is 5-2 as home chalk. Neither team plays much defense so over worth a look as well if in the 120s.
- Looking to play Michigan and Over
Ole Miss @ Alabama -7
- Can’t get me off the Tide right now. Should be hungry after tough late loss to Vandy. Ole Miss playing well of late due (and 6-1 on road ATS) to awful SEC competition, so step up in class here could provide value for Tide, who are 6-1 as home chalk.
- Looking to play Bama
UNCW -2 @ Towson
- Last chance for a CAA win for Towson? Probably. But just don’t see them putting it together against a well coached and improving Seahawk squad finding a good 2nd optioin in Trevor Deloach to go along with Tomko. Should be surprisingly high scoring. Towson will give it all so don’t lay too many.
- Looking to play UNCW (not laying too many) and Over.
Georgia -2 @ South Carolina
- Bulldogs providing more value on the road (5-0 ATS) but still haven’t put it all together, as they have the pieces to be great. Georgia needs all the SEC wins it can get while Cack may be thinking about next season.
- Looking to play Georgia at a low price
Marshall @ ECU Pk
- Pirates improving rapidly but stepping up in competition again. Herd a frustrating team this season, have the potential to be great. Marshall can defend the 3 and should get to the line easier than ECU, so like them in this matchup. Herd also 6-3 ATS as road dog.
- Looking to play Marshall if not laying points
JMU @ Mason -8 O/U 142
- Wouldn’t advise betting against Mason at home, but JMU was the closest game they’ve had since early January. Look ahead spot for Mason as they have showdown in Richmond next week, so at some point they will be overvalued. In most cases in CAA Mason just has too many D1 athletes, but JMU matches up well here, and can actually score (unlike ODU). Bowles had 21 pts, 14 board and 6 blocks last time they played. JMU 5-1 as road dog. Over also worth a shot.
- Looking to play JMU and Over
Tennessee @ Florida -5 O/U 131
- Volunteers a good road dog til last week, so interesting matchup here as Florida is one of the hottest teams in college hoops. However, Gators still only 2-8 ATS as home chalk, so if laying too many not afraid to take Tennessee who is about as unpredictable as any team in college hoops, and therefore more than capable of bouncing back to beat rival Gators. Payback spot as well for home loss. Would lean over but Florida has played very slow pace in SEC play.
- Looking to play Tennessee catching too many.
Southern Miss @ Memphis -4
- Tigers another up and down bunch, not sure what to expect here. Southern Miss can dominate the offensive glass and think they will be up for a big game. No major trends in ATS record for each team, lean Southern Miss due to PPP advantage.
- Looking to play Southern Miss catching too many
Cal @ Washington St -6
- Cougars coming off LAME duck performance at home against Stanford. Gonna go ahead and make this a no play, as I got wrecked on that game ATS and in a teaser. Honestly though, Cougars were 7-1 ATS at home and Cal was 5-1 ATS as road dog before last night. Tough one.
Seton Hall @ Rugers Pk
- Will they make my Scarlet Knights a home fave??! Confidence should be sky high for rapidly improving Rutgers, but beware if laying too many. Rutgers solid paint defense should handle horrible Pirate attack.
- Looking to play Rutgers as short fave.
Detroit @ Butler -12
- Payback spot and Butler is starting to roll into form again, even if Howard is out (the backups might be better!?!?)
San Diego St @ UNLV Pk O/U 130
- Aztecs and BYU in another league from rest of Mountain West, but UNLV always tough at home. Under looks like a solid option given UNLVs strong paint defense and the slow pace that the Aztecs prefer. UNLV has looked much improved since home debacle against Colorado St, so not afraid to play them as home dog.
- Looking to play UNLV as dog and Under
Stanford @ Washington -11
- Don’t see how Stanford can hang in here, even after big upset last night. Washington 8-3 as home chalk and Stanford still shaky on road, even with last night.
Pitt @ Villanova -2 O/U 143
- West Va soft this year (particularly on the boards). Villanova is not, and is in a must win game coming back home after brutal loss. Home crowd takes them to victory, Pitt will have to earn my respect. Over also worth a look as both teams has elite offenses and not as strong on defense.
- Looking to play Nova and Over
Kansas St @ Colorado -5
- Not sure I trust the Wildcats even in a revenge spot. Colorado is better in terms of PPP and off a home loss to a A&M team that was in must win mode. Kansas St 0-3 as road dog and don’t see them putting together a season ending run to save themselves.
- Looking to play Colorado
New Mexico @ Colorado St -3 O/U 142
- Don’t mind laying small number with Colorado St against surging New Mexico. Teams identical in terms of PPP so look for home edge to push the Rams over the top. Game should have good pace and features two strong offenses so over also worth a look if not too high in the 140s.
- Looking to play Colorado St at small number and Over
Wichita St -3 @ Northern Iowa
- Shockers 7-1 as road chalk this year and coming off horrible home loss, got to like them in this spot to keep at large bid alive, also revenge. Northern Iowa coming back to reality after hot start to MVC schedule. No Iowa yet to be a home dog but still not the same team as last year.
- Looking to play Shockers as small road fave
Oregon @ USC -7
- Trojans enjoying being back at Galen Center, and while Ducks showed some fight in Pauley last night, still don’t seem ready to take recent home success on the road. USC still has potential to make a late season run, and will take all the home wins they can get.
- Looking to play Trojans
St Mary’s -3 @ San Francisco
- You really don’t want it with the Dons right now! For first place in the WCC!
Friday, February 04, 2011
Saturday 2.5.11 Look Ahead
Xavier -12 …should roll
Cleveland St -7 …could be value in butler but almost unbettable right now
UCLA -2 …were only favored by 3 over usc, can’t imagine its much more here
Villanova -4 …west va should hang around here
Georgetown -9 …providence can defend the 3, should hang around
Ga Tech PK …jackets just don’t have it this year, beware shumpert as always
BC +2 …could be value in BC
Maryland -18 …wake still hasn’t covered on road
Okie St -4 …not afraid to take rising Sooner squad
Northwestern +3 …illini shaky on road
Texas A&M -6 …should be salty, and Baylor is in freefall
Miami -7 …still love this team for whatever reason
Mason -9 …keep riding the train
Wisconsin-Milwaukee -5 …love GB here
Gonzaga -8 …tough spot for Memphis
Oregon +5 …playing much better
Nebraska +7 …tough at home
Charleston -8 …can furman show up? Great ATS
Indiana -7 …hoosiers rolling
Tennekey -4 …not sure I trust Tide on the road yet, but love them and under
Pitt -9 …cinci should keep this close
Duke -16 …nc st shouldn’t
Stanford -6 …look under
Seton Hall +6 …great upset spot
Missouri -6 …tigers in a tailspin, look over
California +2 …you really don’t want it with the Bears right now
Florida PK …wildcats are the better team but when will they show up?
San Fran -3 …RIDE THE DONS
Upsets I Like: Northwestern, West Va, St Johns, BC, Oklahoma, Cal, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Nebraska, Alabama
Cleveland St -7 …could be value in butler but almost unbettable right now
UCLA -2 …were only favored by 3 over usc, can’t imagine its much more here
Villanova -4 …west va should hang around here
Georgetown -9 …providence can defend the 3, should hang around
Ga Tech PK …jackets just don’t have it this year, beware shumpert as always
BC +2 …could be value in BC
Maryland -18 …wake still hasn’t covered on road
Okie St -4 …not afraid to take rising Sooner squad
Northwestern +3 …illini shaky on road
Texas A&M -6 …should be salty, and Baylor is in freefall
Miami -7 …still love this team for whatever reason
Mason -9 …keep riding the train
Wisconsin-Milwaukee -5 …love GB here
Gonzaga -8 …tough spot for Memphis
Oregon +5 …playing much better
Nebraska +7 …tough at home
Charleston -8 …can furman show up? Great ATS
Indiana -7 …hoosiers rolling
Tennekey -4 …not sure I trust Tide on the road yet, but love them and under
Pitt -9 …cinci should keep this close
Duke -16 …nc st shouldn’t
Stanford -6 …look under
Seton Hall +6 …great upset spot
Missouri -6 …tigers in a tailspin, look over
California +2 …you really don’t want it with the Bears right now
Florida PK …wildcats are the better team but when will they show up?
San Fran -3 …RIDE THE DONS
Upsets I Like: Northwestern, West Va, St Johns, BC, Oklahoma, Cal, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Nebraska, Alabama
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)