Saturday 2.12.11 Look Ahead

Syracuse @ Louisville -3
- Cards not impressive as home chalk (7-6 ATS) and should be in for a dog fight with Cuse off a loss. Orange have large advantage inside so if not turning it over and nobody on Louisville goes bonkers from 3 they should be in this to the end. If total at or above 140 look under.
- Looking to play Syracuse

St Louis @ Richmond -9 O/U 123
- St Louis been playing better of late after rough A10 start, and give up the least amount of 3 point shots in college hoops (also 24th in least amount of Assists allowed). Spiders offense prefers to swing around and shoot the 3 instead of attacking hoop one-on-one so looking under as long as total isn’t at 120. Richmond 3-6 as home chalk so don’t want to lay big points in what will be a grinder of a basketball game.
- Looking to play St Louis and Under

Notre Dame -8 @ South Florida
- Irish hit the road again, where they were successful last trip (upset @ pitt and cover @ depaul). Second time this season Notre Dame will be road chalk and think this may be a letdown spot with the early tip. Cuse needed every win they can get in their route last Saturday in the same spot, but Irish appeared to take foot off the pedal. Also, in my opinion, most overrated team in college hoops. Expect the Bulls athleticism to give the Irish offense problems.
- Looking to play South Florida

Kentucky @ Vanderbilt E O/U 145
- Kentucky could very well be favored here. That wouldn’t surprise me given the results of each team’s last two games. Vandy survived the upset bid of the hottest team in the SEC, and that was great preparation for Kentucky. Wildcats still don’t have solid road win in SEC, and expect a raucous Memorial gym similar to Thursday night’s which really pushed the home team over the edge. Vanderbilt mediocre 4-5 as home fave but won’t be laying much, if any, here. Kentucky lacks inside scorer and doing damage from outside tough against Vandy defense (7th in eFG% D from 3P). Just have to hope Vandy keeps em off the boards. Pace will be wild but could be value in under with Kentucky’s offense likely to be ineffective (avg 7 pts less on road and 3 pt problems).
- Looking to play Under and Vanderbilt

North Carolina -2 @ Clemson O/U 138
- Tough game. Both these teams are tough as nails right now and have shown the greatest improvement this season. Value will line with homedog Clemson who have figured out new coach’s defensive scheme and have enough perimeter weapons to avoid long scoring droughts…which is what I’m looking for here as Stitt and Young will need to hit 3s to beat a TOUGH UNC 2pt defense. Clemson will keep the pace slow (and have more success at home than @ Chapel Hill) and both defenses are top notch so under should be worth a look in what will be a close defensive battle. Clemson 9-1 at home and yet to be home dog.
- Looking to play Clemson and Under

Maryland @ BC Pk O/U 148
- Great payback spot for road warrior Terps (5-1 ATS on road). BC was peaking when they met earlier, and right now on a slide. Expect Gary to have em ready for an up and down shootout (total may be too high)
- Looking to play Maryland and Over (total may be too high/square)

Temple @ Dayton Pk O/U 133
- In terms of PPP, Dayton is a class below the top 4 A10 teams, but at home they are always dangerous, so don’t think Temple will be laying much, if any. Temple 4-1 ATS as road chalk so not afraid to lay points. Game should be slow and defensive, so like under better than either side.
- Looking to play Under

Oklahoma @ Missouri -14
- Oklahoma turns it over way too much to have any success here. Missouri should be salty after Kansas beatdown and get back to defense. Should win by 20+.

Texas A&M -10 @ Texas Tech
- Tech horrible at protecting offensive glass. A&M needs all the Big 12 wins they can get after minislump. Should be another beatdown, maybe tease Missouri and A&M.

Ohio St @ Wisconsin Pk O/U 126
- Wisconsin 6-2 as road chalk. Wisconsin 9-0 at home under Bo. Its almost becoming a public play, but in Big 10 PPP Wisconsin is the better team, and if you only take Wisconsin home numbers that inflates significantly. Badgers should roll to a double digit victory, as I really don’t see Sullinger and Lauderdale having any chance of stopping Leur and Nankivil outside. Ohio St defense not fantastic, especially if not forcing turnovers, so looking over, as game should see points on nearly every possession, with Wisconsin having more due to turnover advantage.
- Looking to play Wiscy and Over

ODU @ VCU -6
- Payback for ODU in this big CAA rivalry. Don’t think VCU can keep the Monarchs off the boards in this one, and this will be the Rams’ toughest home game to date, and only 3-7 as home chalk this year. ODU can get beat from 3 but VCU not hitting them as expected.
- Looking to play ODU

UVA @ Florida St -9 O/U 120
- Looking to play any under above 120 as this will be ugly, and UVA catching too many points (5-1 ATS as road dog)

Baylor @ Texas -10
- Would never advise going against Texas, but they didn’t cover as home chalk against Tech and at some point will be overvalued. Baylor needs a big win and will bring their A-game, if they don’t turn it over this could go to the wire.

Oregon St @ UCLA -14
- Beavers have been awful on the road, not sure it gets any better against rising Bruins. UCLA can have problems with TOs so might be too big a number.

Indiana @ Michigan -4 O/U 130
- No stopping the hot Wolverines. Indiana really hurt by rash of injuries so would love anything under 5 pts with Michigan, who is 5-2 as home chalk. Neither team plays much defense so over worth a look as well if in the 120s.
- Looking to play Michigan and Over

Ole Miss @ Alabama -7
- Can’t get me off the Tide right now. Should be hungry after tough late loss to Vandy. Ole Miss playing well of late due (and 6-1 on road ATS) to awful SEC competition, so step up in class here could provide value for Tide, who are 6-1 as home chalk.
- Looking to play Bama

UNCW -2 @ Towson
- Last chance for a CAA win for Towson? Probably. But just don’t see them putting it together against a well coached and improving Seahawk squad finding a good 2nd optioin in Trevor Deloach to go along with Tomko. Should be surprisingly high scoring. Towson will give it all so don’t lay too many.
- Looking to play UNCW (not laying too many) and Over.

Georgia -2 @ South Carolina
- Bulldogs providing more value on the road (5-0 ATS) but still haven’t put it all together, as they have the pieces to be great. Georgia needs all the SEC wins it can get while Cack may be thinking about next season.
- Looking to play Georgia at a low price

Marshall @ ECU Pk
- Pirates improving rapidly but stepping up in competition again. Herd a frustrating team this season, have the potential to be great. Marshall can defend the 3 and should get to the line easier than ECU, so like them in this matchup. Herd also 6-3 ATS as road dog.
- Looking to play Marshall if not laying points

JMU @ Mason -8 O/U 142
- Wouldn’t advise betting against Mason at home, but JMU was the closest game they’ve had since early January. Look ahead spot for Mason as they have showdown in Richmond next week, so at some point they will be overvalued. In most cases in CAA Mason just has too many D1 athletes, but JMU matches up well here, and can actually score (unlike ODU). Bowles had 21 pts, 14 board and 6 blocks last time they played. JMU 5-1 as road dog. Over also worth a shot.
- Looking to play JMU and Over

Tennessee @ Florida -5 O/U 131
- Volunteers a good road dog til last week, so interesting matchup here as Florida is one of the hottest teams in college hoops. However, Gators still only 2-8 ATS as home chalk, so if laying too many not afraid to take Tennessee who is about as unpredictable as any team in college hoops, and therefore more than capable of bouncing back to beat rival Gators. Payback spot as well for home loss. Would lean over but Florida has played very slow pace in SEC play.
- Looking to play Tennessee catching too many.

Southern Miss @ Memphis -4
- Tigers another up and down bunch, not sure what to expect here. Southern Miss can dominate the offensive glass and think they will be up for a big game. No major trends in ATS record for each team, lean Southern Miss due to PPP advantage.
- Looking to play Southern Miss catching too many

Cal @ Washington St -6
- Cougars coming off LAME duck performance at home against Stanford. Gonna go ahead and make this a no play, as I got wrecked on that game ATS and in a teaser. Honestly though, Cougars were 7-1 ATS at home and Cal was 5-1 ATS as road dog before last night. Tough one.

Seton Hall @ Rugers Pk
- Will they make my Scarlet Knights a home fave??! Confidence should be sky high for rapidly improving Rutgers, but beware if laying too many. Rutgers solid paint defense should handle horrible Pirate attack.
- Looking to play Rutgers as short fave.

Detroit @ Butler -12
- Payback spot and Butler is starting to roll into form again, even if Howard is out (the backups might be better!?!?)

San Diego St @ UNLV Pk O/U 130
- Aztecs and BYU in another league from rest of Mountain West, but UNLV always tough at home. Under looks like a solid option given UNLVs strong paint defense and the slow pace that the Aztecs prefer. UNLV has looked much improved since home debacle against Colorado St, so not afraid to play them as home dog.
- Looking to play UNLV as dog and Under

Stanford @ Washington -11
- Don’t see how Stanford can hang in here, even after big upset last night. Washington 8-3 as home chalk and Stanford still shaky on road, even with last night.

Pitt @ Villanova -2 O/U 143
- West Va soft this year (particularly on the boards). Villanova is not, and is in a must win game coming back home after brutal loss. Home crowd takes them to victory, Pitt will have to earn my respect. Over also worth a look as both teams has elite offenses and not as strong on defense.
- Looking to play Nova and Over

Kansas St @ Colorado -5
- Not sure I trust the Wildcats even in a revenge spot. Colorado is better in terms of PPP and off a home loss to a A&M team that was in must win mode. Kansas St 0-3 as road dog and don’t see them putting together a season ending run to save themselves.
- Looking to play Colorado

New Mexico @ Colorado St -3 O/U 142
- Don’t mind laying small number with Colorado St against surging New Mexico. Teams identical in terms of PPP so look for home edge to push the Rams over the top. Game should have good pace and features two strong offenses so over also worth a look if not too high in the 140s.
- Looking to play Colorado St at small number and Over

Wichita St -3 @ Northern Iowa
- Shockers 7-1 as road chalk this year and coming off horrible home loss, got to like them in this spot to keep at large bid alive, also revenge. Northern Iowa coming back to reality after hot start to MVC schedule. No Iowa yet to be a home dog but still not the same team as last year.
- Looking to play Shockers as small road fave

Oregon @ USC -7
- Trojans enjoying being back at Galen Center, and while Ducks showed some fight in Pauley last night, still don’t seem ready to take recent home success on the road. USC still has potential to make a late season run, and will take all the home wins they can get.
- Looking to play Trojans

St Mary’s -3 @ San Francisco
- You really don’t want it with the Dons right now! For first place in the WCC!