Notes: Kentucky is a total wild card. Could be similar to the 06-07 Florida squads and decide to turn it on when it matters, but don't think Kentucky has the clutch 3 pt assassin like Humphrey (forgiveness to Eric Bledsoe) to bail them out if they don't show up (unless Cousins can keep hitting game winners). Very young team that didn't show consistent dominance in a very weak SEC. Should be a relatively chalky region with few "seed" upsets but Cornell and possible Washington show the best potential in that respect.
The Pick: Wisconsin. A talented group of veteran players with an underrated coach playing some of the most efficient basketball in the country is always a dynamite combo in the tournament. Of course they have been weak on the road yet again, but Trevon Hughes has been clutch in the final minutes and Bohanon, Taylor, Leur, etc certainly capable of hitting a big 3. If they can survive the first weekend I love their chances to matchup with Kentucky and then West Virginia (who should cruise through the bottom half of this bracket).
Possible Cindarella: Montana
Reverse Cindarella: Washington.
First Round Previews
East Tennessee St vs Kentucky
Don’t confuse this ETSU team with the one that almost beat Pitt last year. Gone are the 3 best offensive players from that team. However, Kentucky definitely can let inferior competition hang around and ETSU uses a zone (which is the best way to beat the Wildcats). But too reliant on points in the paint that will be nonexistent against this Kentucky defense, so total may be worth a shot if set too high due to fast pace. Line Estimate: O/U 145
Texas vs Wake Forest
Love this matchup. Both teams have to be considered Final 4 threats if they get their acts together in this matchup, but not likely given conference tournament letdowns. No way you can trust either team as they are just as likely to lose this game as play into next weekend. Lean Texas given Wake’s precedent last year of not getting its act together. Line Estimate: Texas -2
Temple vs Cornell
Best 3 pt shooting team versus best 3 pt shooting defense, something’s gotta give. Love the A-10 and Temple is very underseeded. A week off may have cooled the Big Red while Temple won a competitive A-10 tournament. However, Cornell has great ball movement and a good PG to distribute to the array of 3 pt weapons, so an upset not out of the question, especially given Temple’s 1 in tournament win in the last 11 appearances. Cornell full of seniors and also underseeded. Line Estimate: Cornell +7, O/U 120
Wisconsin vs Wofford
Wofford a dangerous matchup for my Badgers but Wisconsin has performed well in first round under Bo Ryan. Not sure Wofford gets enough from 3 to hurt Wisconsin’s defense, so Badgers should escape in a tight low scoring game. Line Estimate: O/U 120
Washington vs Marquette
Awful on the road and in neutral sites early on, apparently everyone thinks they have turned the corner with a 4 point win over California in the Staples Center. Huskies definitely have talent to survive the first weekend, and catch a nice break playing in San Jose. Quincy Pondexter can get his on the inside hear so lean Washington. Line Estimate: Washington +3
New Mexico vs Montana
Montana can stroke it. Big Sky is a bit underrated and is a solid second tier mid major (almost up there with the MAAC and MAC) so Montana should be able to hang with an overseeded New Mexico team. Never say die attitude and big play potential from Anthony Johnson combined with a slow it down half court game leads me to liking the under if up in the high 130s/140. Line Estimate: O/U 140
Clemson vs Missouri
Missouri has looked pretty TURRIBLE when I’ve watched or was involved in one of their games. Great matchup but think Clemson can dominate the paint and Missouri will not be good enough from outside to take advantage. Clemson shits the bed frequently, so beware a turnover fest, but Missouri did not close the season well and don’t think they rally here. Line Estimate: Clemson -1
West Virginia vs Morgan St
MEAC champ Morgan St back in tournament with Todd Bozeman but not sure they got the best of matchups against a hot West Virginia team that should handle the boards and dominate end to end in this one. Line Estimate: West Virginia -12
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