Day 5

Cold streak continues...9-19 in round 2 to put me at an average 26-25 through the first weekend (4-6 on big plays...expect more of these this weekend since I will be emotional regarding the end of the season). Combine all the ML losses and I'm probably hitting better than 50%, but I am playing those so be it. Not quitting on the dogs yet. Syracuse and Kentucky may well be the hot teams given their first weekend, but these teams both are still very overrated compared to the top teams of previous tournaments, and there isn't a team in this tournament that I can guaranty is getting to the Final 4 right now (and if I had to pick one I'd go Duke, but Baylor/St Mary's will be a hell of a game on Sunday). Sweet 16 and Elite 8 trends favor the favorites (and I see these covers clowns saying "all chalk" "easiest games ever"), but again, my entire theory here is that none of these teams are "elite" and I think we'll see a lot of dogs having the chance to win late in these games.

***** Butler +6
* Butler ML +225
Biggest play yet of the tournament. Yes, Butler is outmatched athletically and if Murray State gave them problems, Syracuse is going to give them night terrors. These are the obvious factors that cause almost 90% of the public to be on Syracuse and people punching their Championship game ticket. Just as Kansas, the Cuse has a history of flaming out when they are the clear favorite. So all we need is a viable theory for Butler to have a chance in this game (besides Gus Johnson being the announcer...yes expect chaos in Utah tonight), and we can side with Vegas on the Bulldogs. I watched Butler destory a Wright St zone for about 10 minutes 3 weeks ago. It was amazing. Wright St doesn't have the size Syracuse does, but they had the quickness, and they could not keep up with the Butler ball movement. The 2-3 will obliterate a team like Gonzaga that is not even in the top 200 in A/FGM...Butler doesn't fit that (#88 in A/FGM). They are also great at getting to the FT line. They also have an up and coming coach who has had more than enough time to prepare. Gordon Hayward will stand at the top of the key and zip this thing around. Matt Howard (please stay out of foul trouble) is a great passing big man and I expect him to get his Greg Monroe on in the paint on this one. Mack and Nored are both Assist machines, so we have a team of Bulldogs that take care of the ball and move it aroudn well. They are a bit lacking in 3pt FG%, but Mack is hot and I expect him to step up in a big game, otherwise I hope these guys can convert some open 2 pt looks that should be possible with successful ball movement. As for the Cuse on O, hopefully the travel to Utah can get them out of their rhythm. If not, I expect a lot of perimiter pressure from Butler to prevent the ball getting in low, where Butler will simply have no chance. Veazley matches up VERY well with Rautins and Hayward will be in Wesley Johnson's shirt all night. I do not expect either guy to go off tonight. The Orange have major problems with Turnovers, and if Mack and some of these guys can pick a few off we've seen Syracuse have problems with transition defense (see Gtown in MSG). The Cuse can get out and run, that is for sure, but if Butler is taking smart shots and not turning it over (and NOT going for Offensive Rebounds..PLEASE) I am confident Rautins, Triche, Johnson, and Josepth will not have their highlight reel fast breaks. The total is actually pretty low for a Cuse game, so I expect something similar to the Louisville slugfests that Syracuse had this year, and lean under. I like Butler's chances to keep it close and hopefully devised an acceptable theory to go against the public wisdom.

*** Washington +4
* Washington ML +175
Mountaineers haven't seen a team like this since....Villanova. Truck Bryant does not appear to be a huge loss at first glance given the back-up is tourney veteran Mazzula, but you have to admit that West Va has had Truck holding the ball more than any other player on the team (almost as much as Butler! YIKES), so while he can't shoot either, the offense has been very reliant on Bryant starting the flow, and now its Joe. This is kind of being overlooked right now (in Vegas as well, line has only moved a half to one point). So lets take a deep dive into Joe Mazzula to see if we can get some insight. Joe has been around for awhile (red shirt junior) but has seen his playing time diminish each year, and 2007 may have been his peak. Today Joe is the back-up PG with the worst eFG% on the team and has a fouls called rate higher than Matt Howard. WOW. There isn't a starter on Washington with a Offensive Rating lower than 100. Joey comes in at 94 this year. All I'm saying, there is a reason Joe isn't the starter anymore, so tonight I'd like to introduce everyone to the other Isaih Thomas. The one who is just as fast as his name sake and is on the fringe of the top 100 in Fouls Drawn. If the Mountaineers don't have a true PG, who the fuck do they have when Joe has 3 fouls in the first half? This seems like an ENORMOUS problem to me, especially with Isaih Thomas on the opposite end. Add to the fact that Washington is very strong on the boards, and the only thing I'm worried about now is them travelling across country for this game. I expect this game to come down to the last possession, like many recent West Va games and almost identical to the UW-Marqette game (except hopefully no double digit deficit for UW to overcome). And I'm thinkin Isaih drops the game winner by dribbling around whatever 6-6 dude who can't keep up with him since Joe fouled out midway of the 2nd half.

** Xavier +5
* Xavier ML +200
Its a simple tale for everyone, Kansas State is hot and beat this team bad earlier in the year (never mind it was a young Xavier's first road test where they shot 29% from the floor and had the entire team in foul trouble). All I want to do is ask you all if you are watching the NIT? Because the Atlantic 10 is DOMINATING the NIT right now. And the 2 A-10 teams that lost in the tournament have lost to cindarella who is playing VERY well right now. Yes, the A-10 is a bit underrated, and Xavier is without question the most underrated team in the A-10. If the officials call 31 fouls on Xavier in this game, I will quit college basketball. Refs, please let them play tonight. The X-men just got it in on 2 very underrated defenses, and while Kansas St's is better, they should be prepared for it given the first and second round tests. If Xavier can just not turn it over (they actually won the TO battle last game!), the refs don't call every foul, and shoots 35% I like their chances. And again, Gus Johnson is in Utah. Its going down to the wire.

*** Cornell +8.5
* Cornell ML +350
Look one of these dogs is winning straight up, I'm just making sure I got my stacks on the one. All Cornell has to do is play zone and make them shoot 3s, I am confident their offense can keep them in it but the blowout happens if they are just going back and forth and getting burned on the break. I don't trust Kentucky from the perimiter so just keep it away from Cousins and Patterson...PLEASE.