Day 3 Picks

A mediocre 8-6 on Day 2...17-6 first round overall. 2-2 on the big plays though after an awful 0-2 on those yesterday. Totals are hitting strong so may unleash the beast on those going forward, a lot of these games have been tight (like one or two possession) so not a lot of late fouling yet, but games like Richmond/St Mary's are why I was using caution (like 30 points in the last 3 minutes as Richmond was trying to close a 10 point gap in the final 5 minutes). On to Round 2, and as usual, loving the dogs that in my opinion are playing much better than these power conference at large's, and this will be my LARGEST PLAYED day of the college basketball season. Yeah, ITS OFF AND POPPIN TODAY FOLKS!

*** St Marys +5
* St Marys ML +200
Its this simple, there is not a better 3 point defensive team left in the tournament than the Gaels. I don't know how its possible, but I think these Aussie white dudes have some length out there and Randy has them stretching waaay outside the 3 since Samhan can handle most the paint (seriously, there is only 1 team in college basketball that allows fewer 3s a game, and people aren't making them easily when they get them). Not confident they will be able to keep up with the penetration, or a 2 man game in the paint, but in Nova's awful play of late they have been settling for jumpers or some playground moves without dishing. If they finally wake up, we are in trouble, as the stretched D denying the 3 has left them exposed to give up more 2 point shots than any team in the nation. So will Jay Wright and Nova's guards figure this out? Well, if I have I'm going to be frightened if they don't, but I'm trusting Samhan to be the best post player in this game, and not foul on penetration (PLEASE!) which Scottie thrives on. The bottom line is, Nova either settles for 3s or penetration that leads to bail out foul calls, and I think this is NOT the way to beat an underrated St Mary's defense that is the best at stopping the 3 and doesn't foul much (did you see what Zaga did to FSU last night?!!? St Marys HANDLED that offense in Vegas 2 weeks ago). St Mary's also should block their fair share of shots, and if they can grab most the defensive boards (Nova is no Richmond in that regard, they can crash the glass) I think they are a 50/50 shot to win this game so there is SERIOUS value in the points and the fact that the Public is all over Nova makes me like the points even more, with a shot on the ML as well. St Mary's playing arguably the best basketball in the country the past 2 weeks...yes I'm serious, and I haven't even mentioned Nova's atrocious perimiter defense which McConnell and Dellanova should LIGHT UP, as well as their propensity to foul (Gaels probably the best FT shooting team left in tournament too). I'd like the over more if I trusted Nova to show up, but I have my doubts.

*** Ohio +8.5
* Ohio ML +350
Quickly becoming the tournament's darlings, the Bobcats have another favorable matchup against an impotent power conference team that can't effectively use its size advantage. The points won't come as easy against a much stouter defense, but the way these guys are playing it may not matter. Again, we have a major conference team that is weak on the boards (probably the best way to beat these mid major dogs) playing an Ohio team that they should dominate inside...but I don't think they will. Tennekey is another team that settles for 3s at times. Thats great, Goins ain't goin to hit 3s all day again, he is 29% on the season!!! Please Melvin, keep shooting. Bobcats don't turn it over and will definitely run with the Volunteers, and guys, get this, you will see Wayne Chism toss his headband at the bench because he will be in foul trouble. Ohio does this. Thank God it was such a blowout against Gtown that nobody noticed, but Ohio can and will get to the line in this matchup against an undisciplined volatile team. Ohio actually looked to have a deep bench with the PG, Cooper, being the only one playing 35+ so I think they will definitely be hanging around in this one and fighting tooth and nail like any MAC champ would. Another candidate for playing the best basketball the past few weeks, of course, nobody notices these things if you aren't doing them in the Big Least.


** Murray St +5
* Murray St ML +200
** Under 129
I think both these lines are inflated due to Butler's 3 point shooting barrage in the 2nd half against UTEP (courtesy of Mack, who is not this good at 3s), also the Public is loving Butler after watching them tear through their previous love affair, UTEP. I love me some Gordon Hayward, but he can be a non-factor at times not getting involved in the offense and Butler does appear to rely too much on points at the FT line and not sure how reliable that can be at times. Racers not at a size disadvantage like the matchup with Vandy, and not sure I put too much stock in Butler's Defensive Rebounding numbers garnered in the weak Horizon (did you see BYU rebound against Florida?!?!? Ken Pomeroy may need to adjust these rebounding figures for height or competition or something), and the Racers can get the Windex out on offense. Butler historically has problems with more athletic teams, and Murray St has the mojo going after a CLUTCH last second win. Butler's 2 pt defense could be exposed here, but Murray prefers a slow pace so hoping for close game in the low 60s. Oh and did I mention Tony Easley is a problem in the paint? People already forgetting all that Matt Howard foul trouble talk I was hearing before the UTEP game.

*** ODU +4.5
* ODU ML +200
** Under 128
Baylor will be your biggest public play of the day. I told yall I love some underdogs. I have no idea how the Monarchs do it, I watched them in person in Richmond when they miraculously came back against VCU and apparently had a similar comeback against Notre Dame after being down early. The offense is built around getting it into the paint, and that definitely includes bricking outside shots. Really, VCU may have been a blessing for ODU...a guard oriented team that is stronger on offense but gets by on D with a beast in the middle. Larry Sanders vs Udoh!?!? I don't know...I'm kinda feelin Sanders (pause)...and dude was lost against all the height of ODU. Udoh definitely overplays to increase his block rate, and thats going to lead to a lot of 2nd chances of the finest kind for ODU, layups. They need those people, they can't make anything outside the paint. Tweeny vs Joey Rodrigues!??! Yeah probably Tweeny, but ODU confuses PGs by switching defenses often, and the zone is just as strong as man-to-man. Lacedarius Dunn WILL be a problem for the Monarchs, but my dog Ken Bazemore may be up to the calling (probably the sickest athlete on the court today). They handled arguably a better offense in Notre Dame on Thursday, and I think they prove yet again that defense and half-court execution prevails in tournaments. As for the under, ODU and VCU wouldn't have gone over this if not for OT and that was a fast pace game, Baylor doesn't speed it up so if ODU is playing strong D this should go under.

** Washington -1.5
*** Over 150
Marquette and New Mexico have A LOT in common except for pace. Both love the 3 and neither can defend the paint. If Washington got over this total with Marquette I haven no idea what Vegas is thinking here. This should be a FT fest. Beware the Lobos great play in close games (also will be the most popular Knockout pick of the 2nd round...always a red flag), so like the Over better as both teams should score at will. But New Mex also not great FT shooters and UW decent at taking away the 3 so favor the Huskies in a close one.

** Northern Iowa +12
** Under 127
I think we will get lots a value going against Kansas this tournament since they are everybody's favorite play. This matchup should be similar to the snails pace game in College Station that Kansas played against A&M. Not sure No Iowa can pull the upset, but are more than capable to make this game competitive, especially if its under 60 possessions.

** BYU +5
* Over 155
Can't get off the BYU bandwagon as they are my pick in this region, but I'm not trusting the defensive rebounding numbers I see on kenpom. They were just outmatched on the boards against Florida, and that will be a much bigger problem against Kansas St. BUT the Wildcat defense is very reliant on turnovers. If they break the press, then BYU should be either getting open looks or fouled (and they can hit the FTs). Going against 2 Big 12 teams I MUST BE CRAZY! I think we have the same issues the Big East is having here, these teams are not very good at team defense. Now, BYU not a great team to expose this (nor is ODU) since they most watch Jimmer dribble around then jack (not strong in A/FGM), but for the simple fact that they don't turn it over I'm trusting them to make this a game and not get run out of the gym (as Kansas St did to a similar OKie St team last week). Total a bit higher than I like but this should be the fastest paced game of the day.

** Wake +9
** Under 143
The sloppiest game of the day. Should be an up and down defensive slug fest with lots of turnovers and terribly attempted offensive maneuvers. Wake actually matches up REAL well with Kentucky inside, so if they can get Kentucky to settle for 3s look out, I think this has serious upset potential (and am sticking by my theory that an 8/9 will beat a 1 this year). But just don't trust the offense enough (sorry Ish) to pull this out. Kentucky has been real strong on D all season and nobody mentions that. I think the total has been set for people to POUND THE OVER assuming a very fast pace, so I am really big on the under given we have 2 top 10 defenses here...of course Ish and Wall could get layups repeatedly going back and forth.

KEEP GAMING!