Weekend Preview (2/27 and 2/28)

Great slate of games for hoops fans this weekend, might as well get a head start. Will follow up with official plays tonight or tomorrow AM.

SATURDAY

BC @ GTech
Total blowout. Ga Tech with a week to prepare should win by DDs as their offensive woes should benefit from a terrible BC defense. Could be in the midst of another Yellow Jacket meltdown though so some risk, but have been awesome at home (5-2 ATS as home faves). Line Estimate: GT -7

Kentucky @ Tennesee
Tennekey a bit overrated so fear the popular upset pick, as Kentucky has been playing phenomenal D of late, but Tennekey coming of a loss should be ready for a maximum effort to pull the upset. Tenn has been awful ATS and Bruce Pearl is not a great coach. Kentucky has not been a dog yet this year, so very interested in what this comes in at. Probably will not play it unless Tenn is favored or the gambling public is all over Kentucky. Really just don’t believe in Tenn enough, but they are 1-0 ATS as a home dog (upset #1 Kansas). Line Estimate: Kentucky -2. Under may be worth a look if its close to 150, fast paced game but should be intense and defensive like Kent @ Vandy.

Michigan @ Ohio St
Beware Michigan as road dog (5-1 ATS) but this has blowout of the day written all over it. Rivalry game, payback, and a Michigan team that may have quit after that Illinois embarrassment. Willing to lay big number. Line Estimate: Ohio St -11.

ND @ Gtown
Fear the Irish. Team is now well equipped to handle not having ‘Gody, and Nash may be better. Gody took too many shots away from guys who are probably better shooters. Still don’t trust Gtown and ND will be ready to score a big win. If catching double digits, take Irish as Gtown is 4-6 ATS as home favorite. Line Estimate: Gtown -8.

Iowa St @ Colorado
Buffs at home a nice little secret of mine, 4-2 ATS as favorite. Coming off a rough road trip should be ready to pick up a W at home against an inferior opponent, just hope the spread is less than 5. Line Estimate: Colorado -4.

UNC @ Wake
Betting against UNC almost too easy now, so play Wake or stay away. Deacs off a tough road trip but have had a week to prepare and refocus. Should be a complete blowout but not a fan of laying double digits. Line Estimate: Wake -10.

Texas @ Texas A&M
Love A&M in this spot but am afraid of Texas with this new PG, really a great injury for Texas losing Balbay, as Barnes may never have figured out that Brown was that much better since he can hit shots. Will take Aggies if line is small, but wary of laying significant points as this game should be competitive all the way through. Note that Texas is 1-7 ATS on the road this year (1-5 as fave, 0-2 as dog). Line Estimate: A&M -2.



Cinci @ West Va
Might be tempted to lay the wood with Huggy goin against his old school. West Va either lets teams hang around or blows the doors off, so in this case not afraid to lay significant points. Beware the big east underdog though (especially a Cinci team desperate for a big win) and West Va horrible ATS at home this year (very overrated…but then again the whole big east is). Line Estimate: West Va -8.

Ole Miss @ Bama
Oh how far they’ve fallen! Always tough to give up on a team you liked (ole miss in this case) but that’s how the best do it (not sure I’ll be able to get over my crush on the Wisconsin Badgers though). Rebels just not playing very well, and Bama is a darkhorse to win the SEC tournament in my opinion. Well coached team, tough defensively, and if they get any guard play they will be flat out dangerous. Not much separating these teams so take the home court and the better coach if the line is low. Use caution, as Bama 0-3 ATS as home dog and Ole Miss is 6-2 ATS on road…but again, Ole Miss ain’t playin well (of course now they will probably win the SEC tournament). Line Estimate: Bama -1.

Arizona St @ Cal
The game nobody wants to talk about or give credit. Both these teams should be in the tournament if you ask me. Tough matchup for Devils though as Cal is unstoppable at times and have the range to beat this zone. Cal 9-4 as home fave and Ariz St 0-3 as road dog so not sure this is a spot to back the Sun Devils (but I do think they are underrated). Cal preparing for this as the game of the year. Line Estimate: Cal -8.

Maryland @ Va Tech
Awful spot for the Terps. Va Tech still underrated and coming off ugly loss, and how many ACC games can MD win a row? Looking ahead to Duke too. Risk being MD is 7-2 ATS on road, but 3-2 as dog. Line Estimate: Va Tech -3.

New Mexico @ BYU
Lobos playing bad of late and not covering either. Revenge game for a BYU team hitting on all cylinders. 9-5 ATS at home, should crush an overrated New Mex team. Line Estimate: BYU -9.

VCU @ Old Dominion
Last home game for Gerald Lee. People putting too much stock in ODU loss @ No Iowa. VCU not good on road, and ODU needs win to lock up #1 seed. Line Estimate: ODU -6.

Kansas @ Okie St
Jayhawks 3 wins away from undefeated Big 12 season (unheard of). Okie St 8-0 as home favorite, but 0-1 as home dog (loss to Texas). No way they are favored hear, but could spry the upset as Kansas can be beat from 3 (cowboy specialty…if they make em) and Stillwater is THE place for Big 12 upsets. If getting enough points I’m biting, Kansas 3-5 ATS as road faves. Line Estimate: Kansas -4.
Oregon @ UCLA
Doing it go save Ern? Big win @ SC for the Ducks, but too little too late. Last home game for Bruins, and Ducks are bad, put the SC win on SC’s offensive woes. Line Estimate: UCLA -5.

Arizona @ Stanford
Zona in a bit of a freefall and not sure how a young team rebounds after that disaster in Berkeley last night. Stanford blew one last night, so not sure they can refocus either. Zona yet to be a road favorite so will see if that happens. Line Estimate: Pick Em.

Oregon St @ USC
I’ve never seen a double digit total in college hoops, but if they don’t have one here I’m taking the UNDER. Total Estimate: 105

Houston @ SMU
Love Doherty and my Mustangs. Houston coming off big win but terrible on the road and allergic to half-court games. SMU not great at home but hoping line is low. Line Estimate: SMU -4.

Missouri @ Kansas St
Tigers underrated but payback for covering machine Kansas st. Missouri press could give them problems, but Wildcats 7-2 ATS as home fave. Bad matchup for Tigers as they have a role player injured and suck at defensive rebounds. Wildcats keep rolling. Line Estimate: Kansas St -5.

Villanova @ Syracuse
Both teams overrated, but Nova has had problems with teams that have big physical players (see losses to Pitt Uconn and Gtown), and nobody can top Cuse in that regard. Villanova decent on road but nothing impressive (2-1 ATS as road dog) but both road wins as dogs against Lousville and West Virginia, 2 teams that lack the strength size and “grit” of Syracuse. Cuse not great on offense, but Nova defense not strong enough to exploit that (of course neither is Louisville), but use caution of Cuse’s offensive disappearing act. Line Estimate: Cuse -4.

Washington @ Washington St
Huskies 1-6 ATS on road this year. They suck on the road. HOWEVER I think a page was turned last week with Gameday. If the huskies can get it going they could be dangerous in Pac 10 tournament. Cougars 0-2 as home dog and coming off a big win that again we can attribute to SC’s offensive problems. Spread should be lite given Husky road woes and Cougar senior night. Line Estimate: Washington -4. Over worth a gander if in the 150s.

SUNDAY

Northwestern @ Penn St
Over may be worth a look. Went for 151 last meeting as neither team plays defense yet you get a low total due to the slow pace both teams prefer. Total Estimate: 130.

Marquette @ Seton Hall
Love the Golden Eagles but this road streak can’t continue can it?!? Seton Hall picking up some bunnies of late but still an awful 3-7 ATS at home (2-5 as fave). Marquette still could be underrated though so if a dog play em. Line Estimate: Pick Em.

Richmond @ Xavier
A10 game of the week. No stopping Richmond of late, but Xavier 10-2 ATS at home (all as faves) and one of the most underrated teams (funny that RICHMOND is the team in Top 25 now). Great spot to play the X men as small faves, but caution being Richmond 4-2 ATS as road dog. Line Estimate: Xavier -4.

Louisville @ Uconn
Revenge spot for Huskies who are on a nice run of late. Louisville in jeopardy after 2nd half meltdown vs Gtown and now a brutal 3 game stretch to end Big East play. Could we see the end of the Pitino era? 3 losses in a row and a first round MSG exit could make it so. Cards 3-6 ATS on road (2-2 as dog) and will be itching for a win, but UConn will be just as focused (however a dreadful 4-9 ATS as home fave). Interested in UConn if line is low. Line Estimate: UConn -5.

Michigan St @ Purdue
Hummell injury will sway the line but FANTASTIC spot for Spartans. 4-3 as road faves (1-3 as dogs) but are in big need of a big win and what better place than a revenge game against a higher ranked opponent. Purdue on a nice hot streak of late but only 7-8 ATS at home. Willing to take small dog Sparty against a thin Purdue frontline. Line Estimate: Purdue -1.

Clemson @ Florida St
Nice payback spot for Seminoles who are playing great of late, but an ugly 3-9 ATS as home fave. Not sure if Fla St can handle this press so may want to watch, Clemson also desperate for a win, but 0-4 ATS as road dog and coming off brutal meltdown in College Park. Line Estimate: Fla St -4.

Duke @ UVA
UVA in a awful funk but always tough at home (5-5 ATS, always a fave) and run of losses against the bigger more athletic teams of the ACC. Duke road woes have been forgotten with recent run (still 2-5 ATS as road fave), but if laying DDs on the road, take an ACC home dog who finally has a chance to match up well. Line Estimate: Duke -9.